Kemi could scupper Burnham’s dream (Image: Getty)

But now it’s all changed. Barring a truly calamitous premiership, beyond even Starmer levels of awfulness, Burnham will fight the next election. And, at the moment, the only people who could feasibly replace him in Downing Street, should he lose, appear to be Farage and Badenoch.

Given that Reform routinely polls above the Conservatives, you’d expect Farage to be favourite. So why isn’t he? Simple. Because although millions absolutely adore the guy, many more millions will vote for anyone – even a man with a bin on his head – instead. The Bookies reckon his marmite quality may be his downfall, even if he’s loved in much of Clacton.

But if a week is a long time in politics, then a year or so is an eon. Badenoch has played an astute, patient game after an unspectacular start. There’s little, if any, talk of her being challenged, and she comfortably out-polls her own party. Meanwhile, the economy is set to be the main election issue, which she’ll regard as fertile ground.

A path to power is opening up for her. Yes, it’s long, winding and narrow. There are perilous drops on either side, with Burnham, Farage and others looking to tip her into the abyss. They may well succeed.

But the path is navigable. She has a shot. That’s why, like it or not, her position as narrow favourite to be next prime minister is just about deserved.

Kemi Badenoch Could Scupper Andy Burnham’s Dream of Labour Rule into the 2030s

Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street has transformed the political landscape of Britain. After years of frustration with Conservative governments and the disappointing final months of Keir Starmer’s premiership, Burnham has entered office promising a different style of leadership. His early political honeymoon has been remarkably strong, with voters responding positively to his energetic approach, his focus on practical issues and policies such as cheaper bus fares and support for households. However, one major obstacle could stand in the way of Burnham’s ambition to establish Labour as the dominant political force for the rest of the decade: Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

Badenoch is currently facing an enormous challenge of her own. The Conservatives have suffered a historic decline in support, while Reform UK has emerged as a powerful competitor on the political right. Recent polling has placed Reform ahead of the Conservatives, creating the danger that the anti-Labour vote could remain divided. Yet Badenoch has refused to respond by forming an alliance with Nigel Farage. She has insisted that the Conservatives must fight independently and rebuild their own political identity.

That decision could ultimately be crucial for Burnham. Labour’s long-term dominance cannot be guaranteed simply because the Conservatives are currently unpopular. British politics can change rapidly, and governments that appear secure at the beginning of a parliamentary period can lose public confidence surprisingly quickly. Burnham himself has inherited a Labour government that won a huge parliamentary majority but then suffered a dramatic collapse in popularity under Starmer. His own rise to power demonstrates how quickly political fortunes can change.

Badenoch therefore does not need to defeat Burnham immediately. Her more realistic objective is to rebuild the Conservative Party into a credible opposition before the next general election. If she can persuade voters that the Conservatives have learned from their mistakes, offer practical alternatives and provide a stronger answer to economic and social problems, Labour’s path towards long-term rule could become much more difficult.

One of Badenoch’s biggest advantages is that she has a clear willingness to challenge Burnham directly. Before he became Prime Minister, she repeatedly attacked him for allegedly lacking a clear governing plan. In June, she argued that Burnham could end up repeating Starmer’s mistakes and accused Labour of confusing electoral success with having a genuine agenda for government.

This criticism could become increasingly effective if Burnham’s government begins to struggle with the difficult decisions now approaching. His honeymoon has been dominated by relatively popular and visible measures, but the government is entering a much more demanding phase. Parliament has returned, and Burnham faces difficult decisions over the economy, welfare, migration, prisons, energy and public spending. His first major Budget is also expected to provide a major test of his political judgement.

The danger for Burnham is that voters may be impressed by small improvements while still becoming frustrated if the bigger problems facing Britain remain unresolved. Cheap bus fares and other cost-of-living measures can produce an immediate political benefit, but they cannot by themselves solve weak productivity, strained public services, housing shortages or high government debt.

This is where Badenoch could attempt to change the political conversation. Rather than simply attacking individual Labour policies, she needs to convince voters that the Conservatives have a coherent alternative. Her recent approach has focused heavily on energy costs, taxation, regulation, immigration and opposition to aspects of Labour’s net-zero strategy. She has criticised the government for delaying decisions on North Sea oil and gas projects such as Rosebank and Jackdaw, arguing that Britain needs greater energy security and economic growth.

Energy policy could become particularly important. Britain is experiencing a difficult debate over how quickly it should move away from fossil fuels while maintaining affordable energy and protecting industrial competitiveness. Badenoch has positioned herself against what she sees as excessively expensive climate policies. Her supporters believe this gives the Conservatives an opportunity to appeal to households and businesses worried about energy bills.

The issue also demonstrates the broader ideological difference between Badenoch and Burnham. Burnham supports the UK’s net-zero ambitions but has shown a pragmatic willingness to consider limited North Sea drilling. Badenoch and Reform UK have taken a much stronger position against current net-zero policies. The political battle over energy could therefore become a proxy for a wider argument about the future direction of Britain.

Immigration is another area where Badenoch could put Burnham under pressure. The Conservatives have traditionally attempted to present themselves as the party of stronger border control, but Reform UK has taken an even harder position. Badenoch therefore faces the difficult task of being sufficiently tough to win back Conservative voters without allowing Reform to dominate the issue.

Her recent refusal to cooperate with Reform is significant. Badenoch has attacked former Conservatives who defected to Farage’s party and ruled out a coalition or formal alliance. Although this creates a risk that the right-wing vote remains divided, it also gives her an opportunity to establish the Conservatives as an independent political force rather than allowing them to become an extension of Reform.

If she succeeds, Burnham could face a much more serious Conservative challenge at the next election. A united and credible Conservative Party could potentially attract moderate voters who are uncomfortable with Reform while also persuading traditional Conservative voters to return. That would make Labour’s ambition of remaining in power into the 2030s much less certain.

Badenoch also has an opportunity because Burnham’s government is likely to encounter unpopular decisions. The Prime Minister has promised a more cooperative style of politics, but cooperation becomes difficult when the government must make choices involving higher taxes, welfare reform or spending reductions. Burnham has already discovered that his political capital is not unlimited. The forthcoming Budget could force him to choose between competing groups of voters and interest groups.

Welfare reform could be especially dangerous. Labour is under pressure to address economic inactivity and rising welfare costs, but previous attempts to reduce disability-related benefits have generated strong opposition within the party. If Burnham chooses to make significant cuts, Badenoch could accuse Labour of abandoning vulnerable people. If he avoids substantial reform, the Conservatives could attack him for failing to control public spending.

Prison policy provides another example. Burnham’s government is dealing with overcrowding and plans for the early release of thousands of prisoners have already created controversy. Badenoch has demanded tougher measures to ensure that dangerous offenders are not released early. The issue gives the Conservative leader an opportunity to present herself as a politician willing to prioritise public safety.

However, Badenoch cannot rely entirely on attacking Labour. Her greatest problem is that the Conservative Party itself remains unpopular. Many voters still associate the Conservatives with the economic turmoil of recent years, political instability and a perceived failure to deliver on promises. Badenoch therefore has to persuade voters that today’s Conservative Party is substantially different from the one that lost credibility before Burnham’s rise.

Her personal political style could help and hurt her at the same time. Badenoch is known for being direct, confident and willing to express strong opinions. Supporters see these qualities as evidence of authenticity. Critics argue that she can alienate people who do not already agree with her. The Financial Times has highlighted both sides of her leadership, describing her as a politician with strong convictions whose assertiveness can sometimes make it difficult to broaden her appeal.

This matters because defeating Labour will require more than energising the Conservative base. Badenoch needs to win back moderate Conservatives, persuade floating voters and potentially attract people who previously voted Labour. That requires a broader message than simply opposing Burnham.

Burnham, meanwhile, is benefiting from a strong early public image. Recent polling cited by the Financial Times gave him a net favourability rating of +13, while his political style has been viewed more positively than Starmer’s. His national listening tour has helped him project an image of a Prime Minister who is interested in practical problems rather than Westminster politics.

That popularity could be extremely valuable. If Burnham can maintain public confidence while delivering improvements in areas such as transport, housing, employment and public services, he may establish a durable political coalition. His ambition would then be to transform Labour’s current parliamentary dominance into a long period of government extending well into the 2030s.

But popularity at the beginning of a premiership is not the same as long-term success. Burnham’s real test begins when his government must make unpopular choices. A Budget that raises taxes, difficult welfare reforms or failures in public services could quickly weaken his position. Badenoch’s task will be to ensure that every Labour mistake becomes part of a wider narrative about why Britain needs a change of government.

The political situation is also complicated by Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party has demonstrated that it can attract voters who previously supported both the Conservatives and Labour. If Reform remains strong, Badenoch could struggle to win enough seats even if Conservative support rises. Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes the distribution of votes particularly important. A party can increase its national vote share without gaining enough constituencies to form a government.

For Burnham, however, a divided opposition is extremely advantageous. Labour could retain power with a smaller share of the national vote if Conservative and Reform candidates divide the opposition vote in key constituencies. This is one reason Badenoch’s decision to reject an alliance with Reform could become one of the most consequential strategic choices of her leadership.

Yet there is another possibility. If Badenoch rebuilds the Conservatives while Reform loses momentum, she could emerge as the principal alternative to Labour. Recent political commentary has suggested that Farage’s influence may be weakening in some areas, while Badenoch’s visibility has increased.

The next few years will therefore be a battle for political credibility. Burnham needs to prove that his government can deliver. Badenoch needs to prove that the Conservatives deserve another chance. Reform needs to demonstrate that it can maintain its support rather than simply benefiting from dissatisfaction with the traditional parties.

For Labour, the greatest danger would be complacency. The party has already experienced how quickly a huge electoral advantage can disappear. Starmer’s government won a landslide in 2024 but became deeply unpopular within a relatively short period. Burnham cannot assume that his current popularity will last until the next election.

For Badenoch, the greatest danger is the opposite: attacking Labour without offering a sufficiently convincing alternative. Voters may dislike aspects of Burnham’s government without automatically wanting another Conservative government. The Conservatives need to demonstrate that they have learned lessons from their years in office and can provide a credible programme for economic growth, public services and national renewal.

Ultimately, Kemi Badenoch could indeed scupper Andy Burnham’s dream of Labour rule into the 2030s—but only if she can turn the Conservative Party into a credible governing alternative. Her immediate task is not simply to make Burnham unpopular. It is to make voters believe that Britain would be better governed by a Conservative administration.

Burnham currently has the advantage. His honeymoon remains intact, his political style is attracting positive attention and the opposition remains divided. But politics is rarely decided by the mood of a Prime Minister’s first few weeks.

The decisive period will come when difficult choices begin to dominate the headlines. If Burnham delivers economic growth, improves public services and maintains his popularity, Labour could indeed establish a long period of government. If his promises prove difficult to deliver, however, Badenoch will have the opportunity she needs.

The battle between Burnham and Badenoch is therefore about much more than two politicians. It is a contest between two competing visions of Britain’s future. Burnham wants to turn Labour’s current advantage into a durable governing project. Badenoch wants to rebuild the Conservatives and prevent Labour from becoming the dominant party of the 2030s.

Whether she succeeds will depend on one crucial question: can she persuade Britain that the Conservatives have changed enough to deserve another chance? If the answer becomes yes, Andy Burnham’s long-term Labour dream could be far less secure than it currently appears.

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