The latest More in Common voting intention poll has Labour on 28%, four points clear of Reform on 24%. Labour’s up four points since the pollster’s last survey; Reform’s down two. The Conservatives are steady on 22%, which means Britain’s three biggest parties are now separated by just six points total.
The Lib Dems are up one to 12%, the Greens down three to 8%, and the SNP unchanged on 2%. Fieldwork ran between 24 and 27 July, with 2,061 people surveyed.
The full numbers
Labour 28%, up four. Reform UK 24%, down two. Conservatives 22%, unchanged. Lib Dems 12%, up one. Greens 8%, down three. SNP 2%, unchanged.
More in Common’s director Luke Tryl called it a genuine crossover moment. “Our latest voting intention sees a crossover. Labour move ahead by four. Their first lead since March 2025 and highest share since November 2024,” he said.
This is also the first published poll since Burnham took over to actually show Labour ahead outright. Other surveys around his arrival had Labour drawing level with Farage’s party, or narrowing the gap to just a point or two. This is the first to show Labour genuinely pulling clear on its own.
How bad things were before Burnham
Labour spent most of last year in a genuinely grim polling position under Keir Starmer. Reform was routinely posting leads of 10 points or more, while Labour’s own support sank into the high teens in some surveys, at times fighting the Conservatives and Greens just to stay in second place. By the time Starmer announced he was going, his personal ratings had hit record lows, and plenty of Labour MPs genuinely feared a historic defeat was coming.
Burnham’s arrival changed the immediate mood almost overnight. He came into Downing Street with far stronger personal ratings than his predecessor, and spent his first week rolling out a run of highly visible cost-of-living policies. The government scrapped VAT on household electricity bills, brought back the £2 bus fare cap, and promised a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and smaller live music venues. He’s also pledged action on rough sleeping, opened up the conversation on reforming council tax, and committed to finally getting a grip on Britain’s social care crisis.
Whether every one of those promises can actually be funded and delivered is still very much an open question. For now, though, voters seem willing to give the new prime minister the benefit of the doubt, that changing Labour’s leader really might mean changing what the government actually does.
The Greens have hit their lowest point under Polanski
Less good news buried in the same poll for the Green Party, down three points to 8%, which Tryl confirmed is the lowest rating More in Common has recorded since Zack Polanski took over as leader.
The Greens had been benefiting enormously from Labour’s collapse under Starmer, picking up progressive voters unhappy with the government’s record on Gaza, welfare, tax and public ownership. Labour gaining four points at the exact same time the Greens drop three raises an obvious possibility, some of those voters coming back home now Burnham’s in charge. The headline numbers alone can’t prove that’s actually what’s happening, but the timing alone will worry Green strategists.
Polanski’s party has already shown its support isn’t just protest voting anymore, its win in Gorton and Denton and consistently strong national polling had established it as a genuine force on Labour’s left. The challenge now is holding onto those voters with Labour led by someone considerably more popular and offering a genuinely different direction.
Reform’s long lead has evaporated
This is a sharp reversal for Reform, which has led national polling for most of the past year and at points looked capable of overtaking both Labour and the Conservatives outright as Britain’s biggest political force.
That momentum’s clearly stalled, under sustained scrutiny of Reform’s own finances and real questions about Farage’s personal standing. He’s faced ongoing controversy over the £5m gift from crypto investor Christopher Harborne, support reportedly provided by convicted fraudster George Cottrell, and donations routed to Reform through Cottrell’s mother, Fiona, donations the Metropolitan Police is actively investigating from before the 2024 election. Reform denies any wrongdoing and has consistently framed all of it as a politically motivated establishment campaign.
Farage has also resigned as Clacton’s MP to trigger a byelection, presenting it as a chance for voters to judge him directly rather than leaving it to parliamentary process. Reform’s still sitting on 24%, a level of support that would have looked extraordinary for the party just a few years ago. This poll doesn’t suggest its vote has collapsed. It does show the whole contest shifting quickly around it.
The Conservatives are stuck exactly where they were
The Conservatives held steady on 22%, two points behind Reform and six behind Labour. That stability might offer some small comfort after their historic defeat in 2024, but it also exposes the real problem facing Kemi Badenoch.
Labour’s changed leaders and gained four points. Reform’s had weeks of damaging financial headlines and dropped two. Neither shift has done the Conservatives any good whatsoever. At 22% they’re still competitive in a genuinely fragmented field, but they’re sitting in third, behind a Labour government that looked close to collapse just weeks ago, and a Reform party working through several overlapping scandals at once.
One poll isn’t a permanent shift, not yet
This result matters, but it shouldn’t be read as proof Labour’s permanently reclaimed the lead. Polls are snapshots, and individual surveys can diverge because of methodology, sampling, and ordinary margins of error. Polling averages compiled just before this More in Common survey still had Reform slightly ahead nationally, so it’ll take several more polls to see whether this four-point Labour lead actually holds up consistently across different pollsters.
New prime ministers almost always get some kind of honeymoon. Burnham’s currently benefiting from heavy media coverage, an obvious contrast with an unpopular predecessor, and a run of announcements specifically designed to offer immediate relief on household costs. The harder test comes once his government actually has to fund those promises, make genuinely unpopular calls, and show measurable improvement in public services rather than just intent.
For now, though, the direction of travel is hard to miss. Labour’s gone from trailing Reform by double digits to leading it by four points in a single More in Common poll. The Burnham bounce isn’t just a theory anymore. The real question is how long it actually lasts.