A think tank which helped define the New Labour era says the party and others like it must renewed (Image: Getty)
David Miliband and one of the leading think tanks of the Tony Blair era have sounded the alarm about the threat to Labour as Reform UK recruits voters hungry for change.Centre-Left parties such as Labour are in danger of extinction and must “reinvent or die”, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
It points to this month’s string of electoral contests – which saw Labour lose the Runcorn and Helsby by-election to Nigel Farage’s party – as evidence people are turning to the likes of Reform as the “go-to” parties of change. It says Labour took “just one in five votes” with Reform winning “almost one in three”.
Former Foreign Secretary Mr Miliband, who was once seen as a potential prime minister, warned that parties such as Labour are “perceived to be defending the status quo, even as voters say it is failing”.
Writing in the foreword to the IPPR’s report, he took a pot shot at populist parties, claiming they offer “nostalgia” and “change in the form of blowing up the system”.
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But a Reform spokesman shot back: “Reform UK has been tearing down Labour’s Red Wall and the results from the local elections are just proof of the public’s growing frustration with Starmer’s government. Labour have consistently betrayed the interests of the British public and ignored working class people to push their own hypocritical agenda.
“The two party system is dead and only Reform can fix broken Britain.”
‘Reform is a threat as long as Labour looks too London-centric’
The IPPR states that since the 1980s the share of votes in western Europe and North America for centre-Left parties has fallen by more than a quarter. Meanwhile, it says the share for populist parties increased two and half times.
It warns that centre-Left parties are losing the support of people who did not go to university.
“People who have not been to university, historically associated with left-leaning parties, increasingly align themselves with the populist right, while the opposite is true for graduates,” the IPPR states.
It argues the collapse in working class support for the Left has “given populist right parties an opening to steal the left’s historical claim to being for the many, not the few”.
A Labour MP said: “Reform is a threat as long as Labour looks too London-centric.”
He claimed there are people throughout the Red Wall “willing to give Labour a chance” but the party is “not giving them the right message at the moment”.
Progressives are losing both battle of ideas and battle for votes
Across Europe, there is concern that young people are deserting parties like Labour.
The think tank warns: “More than one in five young people (age 18-30) in France are voting for populist radical Right parties, while in Italy 70% of young men and women supported populist parties in the 2010s. In Sweden, in recent elections, up to one in five young men voted for populist radical right parties, compared to under one in 15 young women.”
Parth Patel, associate director at IPPR, said: “Progressives are losing ground not only in the battle of votes but the battle of ideas against the populist radical right. They are stealing the left’s claim as the go-to people to change society.
“Progressive parties are seen as defenders of the status quo instead of vehicles of change. The problem is that the progressive engine of ideas seems to have run out of steam.
“When leaders don’t appear to have new ideas, they reach back for old ones, or imitate their opponents. That will not work at a moment of great change and challenge.”
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Labour Sent Huge ‘Reinvent or Die’ Warning as Reform Surges
Labour has been hit with a stark warning that the party must reinvent itself if it is to remain competitive in Britain’s rapidly changing political landscape, as Reform UK continues to challenge the traditional parties and reshape the electoral map.
The warning comes at a critical moment for Labour. The party has recently enjoyed an improvement in national polling, with YouGov’s latest figures putting Labour on 27 per cent, five points ahead of Reform UK on 22 per cent. Yet the broader picture remains far more complicated than a single poll suggests.
Reform’s rise earlier in 2026 demonstrated just how quickly Britain’s political balance can change.
The party made major gains in the May local elections, while Labour suffered substantial losses. Reform won hundreds of council seats and became a major force in areas where the established parties had previously dominated. Labour’s losses were particularly significant because they demonstrated that dissatisfaction with the governing party could translate into votes for a challenger rather than simply lower turnout.
That experience has created a serious strategic challenge for Labour.
The warning behind Reform’s rise
The phrase “reinvent or die” captures the scale of the debate taking place inside and around Labour, even though it should be understood as political rhetoric rather than a literal prediction.
The central argument is straightforward: Labour cannot assume that the coalition which delivered its 2024 general election victory will automatically remain intact.
British politics has become more fragmented.
Voters who once moved primarily between Labour and the Conservatives now have a growing number of alternatives. Reform has established itself as a significant force on the right, while the Greens, Liberal Democrats, national parties and independents are also competing for voters who may previously have remained loyal to one of the two traditional parties.
This means Labour faces pressure from multiple directions.
Reform can challenge Labour in parts of northern and working-class England. The Greens can attract voters on the left. The Liberal Democrats can make gains in particular constituencies. At the same time, Labour must retain support among urban voters, younger voters, public-sector workers and communities that formed an important part of its recent electoral coalition.
Reform’s local election breakthrough
The importance of Reform’s local election performance cannot be separated from the current debate.
In May, Reform made dramatic advances across England. Contemporary reporting showed the party gaining more than 1,300 council seats while Labour lost more than 1,300, with Reform also taking control of numerous councils.
Those results gave Reform something it had previously lacked: a substantial grassroots presence.
Council seats provide activists, elected representatives, local visibility and political experience.
They also give Reform the opportunity to demonstrate whether its national message can be translated into practical local government.
For Labour, this represents a more serious challenge than a temporary polling fluctuation.
A rival party that builds councillor networks can establish itself in communities for years rather than months.
But the latest polls tell a more complicated story
The current political picture is not simply one of Reform continuously surging while Labour collapses.
In fact, the latest YouGov poll provides evidence of a Labour recovery.
Fieldwork conducted on October 4 and 5 put Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent. Labour’s five-point advantage was its largest statistically significant lead in the YouGov tracker for three months.
Other polling has also shown Labour ahead.
An Opinium poll conducted around the same period put Labour on 30 per cent and Reform on 25 per cent.
This suggests that the political situation is considerably more fluid than the language of an unstoppable Reform advance might imply.
However, the warning to Labour remains relevant because the party’s position is still vulnerable to changes in public opinion.
More in Common’s September MRP illustrated the volatility. Its model projected Labour as the largest party with 250 seats, compared with 147 for Reform, 125 for the Conservatives and 63 for the Liberal Democrats. Yet the same analysis found that nearly half of the projected seats were within five percentage points and that Reform’s projected seats were particularly marginal.
In other words, relatively modest changes in voter behaviour could produce very different parliamentary outcomes.
Labour cannot rely on polling alone
This is why the “reinvent” argument matters.
A party can improve its position in one poll without resolving the deeper reasons voters became dissatisfied with it in the first place.
Labour’s challenge is therefore not simply to increase its headline percentage.
It must decide what kind of political coalition it wants to build.
Does it concentrate on economic growth and public services?
Does it place greater emphasis on immigration and border control?
Does it move closer to European partners?
Does it prioritise working-class voters in former industrial areas?
Or does it attempt to maintain a broad coalition covering voters with very different priorities?
Every answer involves trade-offs.
Moving towards one group can risk alienating another.
Reform’s message
Reform’s political strategy has been built around a comparatively simple message: challenge the political establishment, reduce immigration, cut taxes, reform government and restore greater national control over policy.
That message has resonated with voters who believe the mainstream parties have failed to address issues such as migration, housing, taxation and the cost of living.
But Reform also faces its own challenges.
The party must demonstrate that it can move beyond campaigning and become an effective governing organisation.
Its rapid expansion has brought greater scrutiny of candidates, councillors, internal structures and finances.
The latest controversy over political donations has added another layer of pressure. On October 7, Reform acknowledged procedural weaknesses in its handling of prospective donations while denying that electoral law had been broken. Police investigations into the allegations remain ongoing.
That controversy illustrates the difficulties that can accompany rapid political growth.
Labour’s opportunity
For Labour, Reform’s vulnerabilities could provide an opportunity.
The government does not need to defeat Reform through rhetoric alone.
It can attempt to compete by demonstrating that it can improve living standards, strengthen public services and deliver visible changes in people’s communities.
If voters believe that government is working effectively, Labour could reduce the appeal of protest voting.
But this also means that policy delivery becomes critical.
A party cannot simply tell voters that its opponents are dangerous or inexperienced. It must demonstrate why its own approach deserves support.
That is particularly important in constituencies where Reform has begun building a local organisation.
The working-class question
Perhaps the most important issue is Labour’s relationship with working-class voters.
For generations, Labour’s identity was closely associated with industrial towns, manufacturing communities, trade unions and working-class politics.
That relationship changed dramatically over recent decades.
The Brexit referendum exposed some of those tensions, while the rise of Reform has created another political challenge.
Reform has increasingly attempted to present itself as the voice of voters who feel ignored by Westminster.
Labour therefore faces a fundamental strategic question: how can it appeal to those voters without abandoning the broader coalition that helped it win nationally?
There is no simple answer.
The party’s leadership will have to balance economic policy, immigration, public services, cultural issues and regional inequality while maintaining a coherent identity.
A political system in transition
The rise of Reform is part of a broader transformation rather than an isolated phenomenon.
The two-party dominance that characterised much of modern British politics has weakened.
The May elections demonstrated this dramatically, with Reform making major gains while Labour, Conservatives and other established parties lost ground in different parts of the country.
The consequence is that every major party must now compete in a more fragmented environment.
For Labour, that means the old assumption that Conservative voters will eventually return to Labour or that dissatisfied working-class voters will simply stay at home is no longer sufficient.
Reform has created another destination.
Reinvention rather than panic
The strongest lesson for Labour may therefore be that it needs neither complacency nor panic.
Recent polling shows that Labour has recovered ground and currently leads Reform in several measures.
At the same time, Reform’s gains in local and devolved elections show that its organisational and electoral challenge cannot simply be dismissed.
The “reinvent or die” warning should consequently be understood as a demand for Labour to adapt to a political environment that no longer resembles the one it faced before Reform’s rise.
Britain’s voters are more fragmented, more volatile and less attached to traditional party loyalties.
For Labour, the task is to explain what it stands for, demonstrate that it can deliver and rebuild relationships with voters who have become increasingly willing to look elsewhere.
For Reform, the challenge is different but equally significant: convert momentum into sustainable political organisation and demonstrate that its candidates and elected representatives can govern effectively.
The next phase of British politics will therefore not be determined by one poll, one by-election or one dramatic speech.
It will be shaped by whether the established parties can adapt to a transformed electorate — and whether Reform can turn its growing presence into lasting political influence.
For Labour, that makes reinvention less a slogan than a strategic question: what does the party need to become in order to remain competitive in a political system that is no longer organised around the old two-party divide?