Nigel Farage in Wales, where Reform hopes to make history. (Image: Getty)
A shock poll shows Reform UK opening up a seven-point lead in the race to be the biggest party in the Welsh Parliament in May’s elections. Labour is on course for a historic humiliation. Sir Keir Starmer’s party has emerged as the largest in every Westminster and devolved election for more than a century, but the latest More in Common polling puts it in third place behind pro-independence Plaid Cymru.
The results show Reform UK is the most popular choice among voters (31%), ahead of Plaid (24%), Labour (20%), the Conservatives (13%), the Liberal Democrats (6%) and the Greens (5%). The results will be an encouragement for the party led at a UK level by Nigel Farage. YouGov polling last month put Plaid on 37% and Reform on 23%.
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Reform has named Dan Thomas as the party’s Welsh leader, and the party last week staged a major rally in Newport.
Plaid and Labour may lack the necessary seats to form a coalition, according to More In Commons’s analysis – with support for Labour halving since the General Election. This suggests a multi-party “rainbow coalition” may be formed in the Welsh Parliament, also known as the Senedd. Wales now has the prospect of having its first non-Labour First Minister since the start of devolution in 1999.
More In Common has calculated that Reform is likely to be the biggest party in the Senedd with 36 seats to Plaid Cymru’s 26 and Labour’s 21. The Conservatives are forecast to win 10, the Lib Dems two and the Greens one.
This creates the possibility of Plaid seeking to form a Left-wing coalition with Labour and the Lib Dems or the Greens in pursuit of the 49 seats needed for a majority.
Dan Thomas, leader of Reform Wales, said: “We have known for some time now that the choice at the Senedd election is between Reform and Plaid. It’s now clear that the only way to avoid a far-left coalition of losers is to back Reform.
“That’s the only way we’ll get blanket 20mph scrapped and deliver the real change Wales deserves.”
A Plaid Cymru spokesperson said: “Poll after poll has made it abundantly clear that it is a two-horse race to become the largest party in the Senedd in May. The people of Wales will have to choose between Plaid Cymru and Reform.
“The two futures facing Wales could not be more stark. A positive, ambitious Government led by Plaid Cymru or the chaos offered by Reform – a party whose sole intention is electing Farage to Number 10.
“Plaid Cymru offers new leadership for Wales that is answerable only to the people of Wales, not to London bosses.”
Nigel Farage with Dan Thomas (Image: Getty)
The polling signals that Reform would dominate the Valleys, traditionally a bastion of Labour support, with Plaid winning swathes of West and North Wales.
The results are based on a survey of 806 Welsh adults from January 30 to February 10.