Nigel Farage has crushed another poll (Image: PA)
Nigel Farage – if the predictions are right – will not only be prime minister in a few years but will be one with the biggest Commons majority ever. A poll by communications firm PLMR with Electoral Calculus – and shared first with the Daily Mail – suggests Reform would get 445 MPs if an election was held right now. The threshold to win an outright parliamentary majority is 326 MPs. For context – looking back at recent landslides – in 1997 Tony Blair’s Labour won 418 seats, in 2019 Boris Johnson’s Tories won 365, and in 2024 Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour won 411.
If the PLMR poll is correct, Labour would be reduced from 411 to 73 MPs, the Lib Dems would drop from 72 to 42 MPs, and the Tories (hold your breath!) would fall from 121 to just 7 seats – beaten even by Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party into sixth place. Ouch! Now, for the caveats. This poll assumes no tactical voting. With such voting – over one-third of Labour voters could hold their noses and vote Conservative to keep Reform out – and Farage could be deprived of his majority.
Get the latest politics news – straight from our team in Westminster and more
Invalid email
You agree you are 18 or over. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. You can unsubscribe at any time. More Info.
But Electoral Calculus has also found that over September 10-18, Reform has averaged 36% versus 21% for Labour and a mere 15% for the Tories. All eyes now on May’s local elections, after which Sir Keir and Tory boss Kemi Badenoch could face the chop.
To avoid the threat of tactical voting depriving Reform of a Commons majority, Farage and co need to capture that middle ground which traditionally swings elections.
While immigration is a major issue for voters – according to the PMLR poll – it came second to the economy and cost of living, voted the biggest issue for around 60% of voters. The NHS came third after immigration, with crime number four.
Reform knows it must cultivate a reputation for sound economic management, which its ongoing track record in local government will make or break. Then there is the enormous threat of tactical voting.
According to Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus: “Anti-Reform tactical voting means Reform’s poll lead isn’t as good as it looks, as the party could lose dozens of seats because many voters will vote for any candidate without a light-blue rosette.”
That said, Labour is at risk from voters splintering off to the Greens and Jeremy Corbyn, while the Tory vote is increasingly bleeding to both Reform and the Lib Dems, as the Conservatives once-prized ‘broad church’ fast becomes an electoral liability.
With a volatile electorate, and in the social media age, much will come down to personality as well as competence, authority as much as track record. Reform now must hold this lead into next year and beyond the May local elections.
After that, Reform’s lead becomes – if not unassailable – then at least formidable.
Nigel Farage and Reform UK Face Tight Poll Race as Kemi Badenoch Faces Crunch Political Test
Nigel Farage and Reform UK remain at the centre of Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape, but the latest polling suggests that the party’s position is more complicated than headlines claiming a decisive Reform surge might suggest.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have recently moved closer to Reform, while Labour under Prime Minister Andy Burnham remains competitive at the top of several national voting-intention surveys.
The development places renewed attention on the relationship between Reform and the Conservative Party as Badenoch prepares for another important test of her leadership and her party’s political direction.
A YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 put Labour on 23 per cent, with Reform and the Conservatives both on 21 per cent. Reform had fallen two points from the previous YouGov survey, while the Conservatives gained one point. It was the first time in 18 months that the two parties had been level in YouGov’s polling.
A separate More in Common poll published on September 23 placed Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform on 22 per cent. That survey put Reform narrowly behind Badenoch’s party.
The figures illustrate how closely contested the political landscape has become.
A battle for the right
The relationship between Reform and the Conservatives has become one of the defining features of Britain’s five-party political environment.
Farage’s party has attempted to attract voters who previously supported the Conservatives, particularly those concerned about immigration, taxation, national identity and the size of government.
Badenoch, meanwhile, has sought to rebuild Conservative support after the party’s severe defeat at the 2024 general election.
The two parties therefore compete for a substantial portion of the same electorate.
That competition creates a difficult strategic problem for the Conservatives.
If the party moves too far towards Reform on issues such as immigration, it risks appearing to follow Farage’s political agenda. If it distances itself too sharply from Reform’s positions, it risks leaving some voters available to Farage’s party.
Badenoch has consequently faced pressure to define what modern Conservatism should represent.
Reform’s earlier polling strength
The latest numbers also need to be considered against Reform’s stronger position earlier in 2026.
YouGov’s September 6-7 poll put Labour and Reform both on 23 per cent, while the Conservatives were on 20 per cent. The following week’s survey produced almost identical figures, with Reform again on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent.
Those results showed Reform operating close to Labour at the top of the polling table.
But the subsequent decline illustrates how quickly public opinion has shifted.
YouGov’s September 20-21 poll put Reform at 21 per cent, while the More in Common survey conducted around the same period placed the party at 22 per cent.
Neither result indicates political collapse.
But neither supports the idea of an overwhelming Reform lead either.
Instead, the evidence points to a closely contested race.
Badenoch’s challenge
For Badenoch, the movement in the polls provides an opportunity to demonstrate that the Conservatives can rebuild support without being absorbed by Reform.
The Conservatives remain historically weak compared with their position during much of the previous decade, but their recent polling performance has improved relative to Reform.
The September YouGov result was particularly significant because it represented the first time since March 2025 that the Conservatives had drawn level with Reform in the pollster’s series.
That development came shortly before the Conservative Party’s conference period, giving Badenoch an important opportunity to set out her political priorities.
The conference is traditionally one of the most important moments in a party leader’s calendar.
It allows leaders to define their message, respond to opponents and present policies directly to activists and the wider electorate.
For Badenoch, the central challenge is to demonstrate that the Conservatives have a distinct identity.
Farage remains central to Reform
Farage continues to be the dominant national figure associated with Reform UK.
His personal profile has helped the party attract considerable media attention and distinguish itself from established parties.
However, recent YouGov figures also show the limits of personal popularity.
In September, 69 per cent of Britons said they had an unfavourable opinion of Farage, compared with 24 per cent who viewed him favourably. YouGov described the 69 per cent figure as the highest unfavourable rating recorded for him by its tracker.
That does not necessarily translate directly into voting intention.
Political leaders can have highly polarised personal ratings while their parties maintain significant electoral support.
Nevertheless, the figures demonstrate that Farage’s political appeal remains strongly contested among the wider electorate.
Badenoch’s personal ratings
Badenoch also faces difficulties on the personal level.
YouGov’s September ratings found that 32 per cent of Britons viewed her favourably, while 47 per cent had an unfavourable opinion.
The figures nevertheless represented a different situation from Farage’s.
The Conservative leader’s ratings had improved considerably during the previous year before appearing to stabilise.
A separate YouGov survey examining who voters thought would make the better prime minister found Badenoch ahead of Farage in a direct comparison.
In that August research, 45 per cent said Badenoch would be better suited to the job compared with 16 per cent for Farage.
The survey also showed that some voters who had previously supported Reform were increasingly open to Badenoch.
That is potentially important for the Conservatives because winning back former Conservative voters is one route through which the party could rebuild its electoral base.
The Reform funding controversy
One factor affecting Reform’s recent polling position has been controversy surrounding the party’s finances.
The Independent reported that Reform had faced allegations concerning foreign donations and that police had launched an investigation following an undercover report broadcast by Channel 4.
Reform has denied wrongdoing.
The controversy has added pressure on the party at a time when it is attempting to establish itself as a credible alternative to the traditional parties.
Political parties depend heavily on public trust, particularly when they seek to present themselves as an alternative to an established political system.
The issue has therefore become part of the wider argument about Reform’s organisation and leadership.
It is important, however, to distinguish allegations and investigations from established findings.
An investigation does not itself establish that a criminal offence has occurred.
Competition from Restore Britain
Another factor complicating Farage’s position is the emergence of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain.
The party has sought to compete for voters on the political right, potentially dividing support that might otherwise have gone to Reform or the Conservatives.
The rise of another right-leaning party makes the electoral arithmetic more complicated.
Farage is therefore not operating in a simple two-party contest with Badenoch.
He is competing in a broader political market in which voters have several alternatives.
That fragmentation can make national polling volatile because relatively small movements between parties can significantly change their relative positions.
Labour remains part of the equation
While much of the discussion focuses on Farage and Badenoch, Labour remains central to the picture.
Ipsos’s September polling put Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
That means the Conservative-Reform contest is taking place while Labour remains competitive.
The three largest parties are separated by only a handful of percentage points in several surveys.
Consequently, the future balance of British politics cannot be understood solely through the relationship between Farage and Badenoch.
Labour’s performance, the Greens’ support, the Liberal Democrats and newer parties all affect the distribution of votes.
The importance of immigration
Immigration remains one of Reform’s most prominent political issues.
Farage has consistently argued for much tighter controls on migration, while Reform has placed restrictions on immigration and deportation at the centre of its political programme.
The Conservatives have also sought to present themselves as a party committed to tighter immigration controls.
This creates another area of competition.
Badenoch must distinguish Conservative policy from Reform while addressing concerns shared by some voters who have moved away from the Conservatives.
The question is not simply which party has the tougher policy.
It is also about credibility, implementation and the broader economic consequences of different approaches.
A different kind of political contest
The current polling demonstrates that Britain’s political system is no longer adequately described as a straightforward Labour-Conservative contest.
Reform has established itself as a major electoral force.
The Greens have also expanded their support in certain parts of the country.
The Liberal Democrats remain significant in many constituencies.
And newer political organisations are attempting to attract voters from established parties.
This means that both Farage and Badenoch face strategic choices.
Reform must determine how it converts national visibility into durable electoral support.
The Conservatives must rebuild a broad coalition while preventing further losses to Reform.
Labour must defend its position against challenges from both sides.
What the polls actually show
The recent polling should therefore be interpreted carefully.
The September 20-21 YouGov survey showed Labour on 23 per cent, with Reform and the Conservatives both on 21 per cent.
The More in Common survey subsequently showed Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform on 22 per cent.
Ipsos produced another configuration, with Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
The differences partly reflect different fieldwork dates and methodologies.
They also demonstrate why individual polls should not be treated as definitive measurements of future election results.
What can be established is that the Conservatives have recently moved closer to Reform in several surveys, while Labour remains competitive.
The significance of the Conservative conference
Badenoch’s party conference therefore comes at an important political moment.
Her task is not simply to respond to Farage.
She also needs to explain what the Conservative Party offers voters who are dissatisfied with Labour but do not want to support Reform.
That means addressing the economy, public services, taxation, immigration and Britain’s broader direction.
For Reform, meanwhile, maintaining support will require continuing to persuade voters that the party can translate its national message into effective political action.
The two parties are competing for overlapping groups of voters, but they remain organisationally and politically distinct.
A contest still developing
The latest evidence does not show a settled political order.
Instead, it shows a rapidly changing contest in which relatively small movements in support can alter the positions of the main parties.
Farage remains a major figure in British politics, but his personal ratings remain strongly negative among the wider electorate. Badenoch faces her own challenges, although the Conservatives have recently narrowed the gap with Reform in several polls.
The next stage of the contest will depend on much more than one opinion poll.
Party conference speeches, policy announcements, economic developments, controversies and voters’ changing priorities will all influence the political debate.
For now, the clearest message from the polling is that Reform’s earlier lead over the Conservatives cannot be assumed to be permanent.
The Conservatives have demonstrated that they can move closer to Farage’s party, while Labour remains in contention.
That leaves Badenoch and Farage facing a highly competitive political environment in which neither party can take support for granted.