Reform UK would win the most seats if a general election was held tomorrow, according to a new mega poll. The survey suggests that Nigel Farage’s insurgent party is on course to secure 180 MPs.
The Conservatives and Labour are predicted to be tied in second place with 165 each. It would be a loss of 246 seats for Sir Keir Starmer‘s party with 10 Cabinet ministers ousted including Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, while the Tories would gain 44.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
No party is close to an overall majority in the poll of more than 16,000 people by More in Common.
The group’s UK director, Luke Tryl, said: “We are a long way from a general election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand, but what we can say for certain is that as of today British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level.
“The coalition for change that elected Keir Starmer’s Government has splintered right and left.
“Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this Parliament so far, with our model suggesting that they could well become the largest party in Parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago.
“Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to Government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome.”
Mr Tryl said Labour finds itself “on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the Government’s early missteps”.
Get the latest politics news – straight from our team in Westminster and more
Invalid email
You agree you are 18 or over. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. You can unsubscribe at any time. More Info.
He added: “Not only would an election tomorrow see the gains of 2024 largely reversed, but the party is also suffering historic losses in heartlands such as the Welsh Valleys, Greater Manchester and South Yorkshire, with 10 Cabinet ministers losing their seats.
“The Conservatives meanwhile may breathe a sigh of relief they haven’t been entirely wiped out, but despite Labour’s unpopularity their seat total would only return to 1997 levels and they would suffer further losses to Reform UK, while winning back few of their Liberal Democrat losses in the home counties.”
Mr Tryl went on: “But the truth is the nature of a splintered electorate more than anything means elections for the next few years will be highly unpredictable with candidates winning on small shares of the vote and knife edge results.
“The test for all three main parties will be which one can prove to the electorate that they can really deliver the change the public so desperately wants to see.”
Reform, which currently has four MPs, is ahead of Labour and the Tories in terms of number of seats despite the three parties all taking around 24% because of the increasing efficiency of its vote, according to the pollster.
The next general election is expected to be held no later than August 2029.
The survey of 16,176 people was carried out from March 14 to April 1.
Nigel Farage Bombshell as New Mega-Poll Makes Huge Reform Prediction
A changing political landscape puts Reform UK under fresh scrutiny
Nigel Farage and Reform UK remain at the centre of Britain’s increasingly unpredictable political debate, as new polling projections highlight how dramatically the balance between the country’s major parties could change before the next general election.
For a party that has presented itself as a challenger to the established political order, the latest figures offer both reasons for confidence and a reminder of the obstacles that remain. Reform continues to command significant support in national polling, but recent constituency-level projections suggest that turning votes into parliamentary seats could prove far more complicated than a simple national ranking might indicate.
A major projection published by More in Common in late September 2026 placed Labour on course to emerge as the largest party in a hypothetical general election, with Reform UK in second place and the Conservatives close behind. The model projected 250 seats for Labour, 147 for Reform and 125 for the Conservatives, illustrating how quickly the electoral picture can shift.
The figures are not a forecast of a certain election result. They represent a model of what might happen if an election were held under the assumptions used by the pollster. Nevertheless, they provide a useful indication of the challenges facing Farage as he seeks to turn Reform’s support into a substantial parliamentary presence.
A major change from earlier projections
The most striking aspect of the latest projection is the difference from More in Common’s July model. At that point, Reform UK had been projected to win 293 seats, while Labour was projected to secure only 110.
By September, the same pollster’s model had shifted considerably. Labour’s projected seat total rose to 250, while Reform’s fell to 147. The Conservatives were also projected to recover, reaching 125 seats.
Such a shift demonstrates why political parties cannot assume that a strong polling position will remain unchanged. National vote intention, the distribution of support across constituencies, leadership perceptions, campaign events and the choices of undecided voters can all influence the eventual result.
For Farage, the figures present a complicated picture. Reform remains a significant force in the model, with a projected parliamentary presence far larger than the five seats it won in the 2024 general election. But the party’s earlier projections of a much larger breakthrough have become less certain.
That distinction matters. A party can make substantial gains compared with its previous election result while still falling short of the scale of success suggested by its strongest polling period.
Why the number of seats matters more than the headline figure
British general elections are fought in individual constituencies rather than through a single nationwide allocation of parliamentary seats. Under the first-past-the-post system, a party’s national vote share does not automatically translate into a proportional share of the House of Commons.
A party can receive millions of votes across the country and still fail to win many constituencies if its support is spread thinly. Conversely, a party with concentrated support can secure seats with relatively modest margins.
This is particularly important for Reform UK because its projected seat total remains sensitive to small changes in support. More in Common’s September model indicated that nearly half of the seats could be decided by margins of fewer than five percentage points. It also projected that a large proportion of Reform’s potential seats would be closely contested.
That leaves the party exposed to shifts in voter behaviour. A small movement in the national vote could change the outcome in numerous constituencies, particularly where Reform is competing directly with Labour or the Conservatives.
The same uncertainty affects its opponents. Labour’s projected lead in seats does not mean that the party would necessarily secure a majority, while the Conservatives’ recovery does not guarantee that they could reclaim their previous position as the dominant party on the right.
The result is an electoral landscape in which relatively small changes could have a significant impact on the composition of Parliament.