Nigel Farage could wave goodbye to the party he leads (Image: Getty)
Reform used to be on top of the world. Every opinion poll put them in the lead, as furious voters discovered that Keir Starmer’s Labour administration was no better than the dysfunctional Conservative government they’d just got rid of. Nigel Farage was on course to become Prime Minister, and began putting together a shadow cabinet to help him run the country.
It didn’t last. Today, the outcome of the next general election appears less certain. And Reform insiders are even beginning to think the unthinkable – that Nigel Farage could call it a day and quit before polling day comes. The mood at the party’s conference in Birmingham this week was upbeat. You might even say jolly.
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Activists were unperturbed by a Channel 4 report claiming Reform took funding from a US firm, something that isn’t just against the rules but could actually be a criminal offence.
Party loyalists simply viewed it as further evidence that the establishment was out to get Nigel.
It was the same story when I visited Clacton, during the recent by-election campaign. Then, the focus was on a different story, involving a £5 million gift received by Mr Farage. But the verdict of most voters I spoke to was the same – that Nigel was the victim of a stitch up.
Party insiders, however, fear stories about Reform’s financial affairs have an impact. “We keep on slipping on banana peels,” said one. The fear is that voters will come to associate the party not so much with avarice or corruption, but with incompetence and chaos.
And those having doubts include Nigel Farage himself.
His extraordinary charisma and ability to communicate has made Reform what it is today. After all, before Nigel’s return in 2024, the party was operating under the leadership of Richard Tice – an impressive figure in many ways – and barely made a dent.
But Mr Farage isn’t enjoying himself. In an interview last week he complained of “a wilful attempt, and it’s gone on now for months, to say that everything to do with Reform, that every individual involved with Reform is somehow a crook”.
The horrific murder of Ann Widdecombe was a stark reminder that the threats to his own safety are very real. Mr Farage said: “I don’t know of any other MP that’s faced the threats that I’ve faced.”
And he says his family have been targeted.
There are now questions about whether Nigel Farage will stay the course – especially if election victory looks uncertain. He hoped to be Prime Minister, but he has no great desire to be leader of the opposition.
One friend said the Reform UK leader had spent the past few weeks contemplating his future.
He is “seething” about the impact on his family. Two relatives have had their bank accounts frozen because of their association with him. Others faced security threats.
A source close to Mr Farage denied he had considered “walking away”. But they said: “Like anyone, he does sometimes take stock of his life.
“You cannot overstate how upsetting the murder of Ann Widdecombe has been and there are other security incidents that are not in the public domain which are very serious.
“The impact on his family is also very real and has gotten much worse and that is difficult to deal with. But he is not walking away.’”
Without Nigel, Reform could soon retreat back to the fringes of British politics.
Another huge problem for Mr Farage’s team is that the Conservative Party refuses to die.
Reform once hoped to replace the Tories as the undisputed party of the right. That hasn’t happened.
Mr Farage now says that the Conservative Party has been around for almost 200 years and won’t vanish overnight. And there is a swathe of voters who switch, every so often, between the Conservatives and Lib Dems, but will never back Reform.
It means that the Right is likely to go into the next general election divided, while the Left, split until recently between Labour and the Greens, appears to be coalescing around Labour leader Andy Burnham.
Reform MP Sarah Pochin spoke candidly about the problem at a conference event, telling activists: “We cannot let Right-wing voters down by squabbles … there needs to be some coming together on the Right.”
However, officially at least, the leadership of both Reform and the Tories are firmly opposed to any type of deal. And there is genuine bad blood between them, after Mr Farage welcomed a string of Tory defectors.
Put it all together and the future for Reform is uncertain. It’s far too soon to write the obituary. But the odds on Reform ever winning power at a national level are lengthening.
Nigel Farage could quit – this is why he’s not enjoying life as Reform leader
Nigel Farage has spent much of his political career presenting himself as a politician who thrives under pressure. Yet in recent months, the Reform UK leader has faced a combination of financial scrutiny, internal tensions, political competition and intense attention on his personal life that appears to have made the job considerably more difficult.
That has fuelled speculation about whether Farage could eventually decide that leading Reform is no longer worth the personal cost.
There is, however, an important distinction between speculation about his future and his stated intentions. Farage has repeatedly said that he intends to lead Reform into the next general election. At the party’s September conference, he again told members that he was determined to remain leader and take the party into the election.
At the same time, Farage has acknowledged that the past few months have affected him.
In an interview in early September, he admitted that he had become more frustrated and upset than usual, saying that issues involving his family, security and financial affairs had weighed heavily on him.
Those comments provide a more complicated picture than the simple claim that Farage is about to quit.
The pressure behind the speculation
The first major source of pressure has been scrutiny of Farage’s finances.
The Reform leader has faced questions over a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency businessman Christopher Harborne that he did not initially declare to Parliament. The matter has become the subject of an investigation by Parliament’s standards commissioner.
Farage has disputed the criticism surrounding the issue and has argued that he is being subjected to unusually intense scrutiny because of his position as a political outsider. He has compared the situation with investigations faced by Donald Trump in the United States.
The controversy has nevertheless consumed a significant amount of political attention.
Instead of spending all of his time promoting Reform’s programme, Farage has repeatedly been required to answer questions about donations, financial arrangements and his relationship with people who have provided support to him or his party.
For a politician who has traditionally relied heavily on media exposure, that presents a particular difficulty.
Farage’s political strength has long been connected with his ability to control the message. Financial controversies make that considerably harder.
Farage admits the pressure has affected him
Perhaps the clearest evidence that the situation has become personally difficult came from Farage himself.
During his September interview, he accepted that he had been “ratty” and upset during the summer.
He attributed this partly to concerns about his family’s security and what he described as further problems involving his banking arrangements.
Farage said that he had generally gone through politics with a smile and accepted that he had not been quite his normal self during the previous few months. He added that some of the personal issues had weighed heavily on him.
That admission does not mean he has decided to leave politics.
It does, however, explain why speculation about his future has continued.
Leading a political party is demanding even under normal circumstances. Doing so while dealing with investigations, hostile media coverage, internal disagreements and questions about one’s personal finances creates an additional burden.
He has already stepped down as an MP once
There is another reason why speculation about Farage’s future has received attention.
In July, Farage resigned his parliamentary seat in Clacton and announced that he would fight the resulting by-election.
His decision came amid scrutiny surrounding his finances. Farage said he wanted voters in his constituency to have the opportunity to judge his actions directly.
The move was highly unusual.
Instead of waiting for the next general election, Farage voluntarily gave up his parliamentary position and sought a fresh mandate.
That episode demonstrated that he is prepared to take dramatic political decisions when he believes they serve his wider strategy.
It also added another layer of uncertainty around his future.
The Reform leadership question
Farage is not the only important figure inside Reform.
Richard Tice remains a senior figure, while Zia Yusuf has emerged as another prominent voice. Robert Jenrick, who defected from the Conservatives to Reform, is also part of the party’s senior political team.
This has inevitably prompted discussion about what would happen if Farage eventually left.
A June survey of 850 Reform members by Lord Ashcroft found that four out of five members wanted Farage to continue as leader even if Reform were not in government after the next election. Only 13% thought he should step down in that situation.
The same survey asked members who they would want to succeed Farage if he did leave.
Zia Yusuf and Richard Tice were among the names most frequently mentioned.
Those figures suggest that a succession debate exists, but they do not demonstrate that Farage is preparing to resign.
In fact, the survey indicated substantial continuing loyalty to him among party members.
The party itself wants him to stay
At Reform’s September conference, Farage directly addressed the speculation.
He told members that he intended to lead the party into the next general election and said that this was his responsibility.
That message was significant because rumours about his future had been circulating for months.
A party leader who genuinely intended to leave imminently would normally have little reason to make such a firm public commitment.
Instead, Farage has attempted to reassure Reform supporters that he remains focused on the next election.
Laila Cunningham, a Reform MP, also suggested during the conference that she believed Farage could fight another general election. She described him as someone who continues working at an unusually intense pace.
But what happens after the next election?
The more interesting question may concern what happens beyond the next election.
The Guardian reported in September that people close to Farage believe that if Reform fails to enter government at that election, he could regard the contest as his final one as party leader. The newspaper also reported that some Reform figures believe he could decide to leave earlier for personal reasons.
Those reports should be treated as speculation rather than a confirmed timetable.
Farage has not announced an intention to retire.
But they illustrate why the leadership question is unlikely to disappear.
By the time of the next general election, Farage will be older than he was when he first became one of Britain’s most prominent Eurosceptic politicians.
The physical and personal demands of permanent campaigning are also considerable.
Reform has grown — and so have the responsibilities
The pressures facing Farage are partly a consequence of Reform’s success.
The party has expanded dramatically since Farage returned to the leadership.
It now has a parliamentary presence, hundreds of local representatives and a much larger organisational structure than the party had during its earlier years.
That growth creates new responsibilities.
Farage is no longer simply campaigning against the established parties.
He is expected to demonstrate that Reform can operate as a government-in-waiting.
The party’s recent conference was designed around precisely that objective, with detailed proposals on taxation, immigration, energy, public services, the Civil Service and government reform.
The more seriously Reform presents itself as a potential governing party, the greater the scrutiny its leadership receives.
Rival parties create another challenge
Another source of pressure has come from Rupert Lowe and his Restore Britain movement.
Lowe was previously a Reform MP but has since established a separate political organisation that competes for support among voters on the right.
Farage has been openly critical of Lowe and has rejected suggestions of reconciliation.
In September, he accused Lowe of having a vindictive motivation and argued that Restore could ultimately help other parties.
The existence of a rival movement creates a difficult situation for Reform.
Farage has historically benefited from presenting his political project as the main alternative to the established parties.
A competing movement attempting to attract some of the same voters creates another battle for political attention.
Public opinion is another problem
Farage also faces the challenge of translating strong support among Reform members into broader public support.
Lord Ashcroft’s June research found that Reform members overwhelmingly believed Farage attracted more people to the party than he put off.
The general public was considerably less positive about his personal electoral impact.
That distinction matters.
A political leader can be extremely popular among party activists while simultaneously being divisive among the wider electorate.
Farage has always had a particularly distinctive political profile.
That has helped him attract substantial attention, but it also means that his personal reputation is closely connected with the party’s overall image.
Why leaving could be tempting
The speculation about Farage quitting therefore has several different elements.
There is the relentless political workload.
There is the financial controversy.
There are questions surrounding his personal security and family.
There is competition from rival politicians.
There is the pressure of building Reform into a credible governing organisation.
And there is the simple fact that Farage has spent decades in frontline politics.
The Guardian quoted one Reform official as saying there were various reasons Farage could potentially decide to leave before the next election, including family, security and money. The same report noted that some people close to him believed life outside frontline politics could be easier.
But “could” is crucial.
None of those considerations establishes that Farage has decided to quit.
Farage’s immediate future remains clear
For now, the public evidence points in one direction: Farage intends to remain Reform’s leader.
He has explicitly said that he plans to lead the party into the next general election.
His supporters inside Reform remain strongly loyal, and there is no indication of an organised leadership challenge capable of forcing him out.
The question is therefore less about whether Farage is about to disappear from British politics and more about how long he wants to continue carrying the demands of leadership.
His own comments suggest that recent events have taken a personal toll.
His party’s growth means that the stakes are higher than they were several years ago.
And the scrutiny is unlikely to diminish as Reform’s political ambitions become larger.
Farage has built much of his career around challenging political establishments and enduring controversy.
Now he is facing a different test: maintaining leadership of a rapidly expanding party while dealing with the personal and organisational pressures that come with being one of Britain’s most closely watched political figures.
For the moment, he says he is staying.
But the speculation about what happens next is unlikely to disappear — particularly if the political and personal pressures that Farage himself has acknowledged continue into the next stage of Reform’s development.