Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)

Mr Johnson said: “It’s extremely hard for a new party to break through in the UK. I mean literally no one’s done it for more than a century.

“For Reform to have any chance of being in the next government they need absolutely every asset they have, and their number one asset by a long way is Nigel Farage.

Mr Johnson added that Mr Farage’s return as Reform’s leader was a “transformative moment” ahead of last July’s election.

“The reason is that actually Reform’s vote was going down a little bit at the start of that campaign.

“Richard Tice did not have name recognition with the general public or even with Reform voters, and the Conservatives were starting to squeeze Reform’s vote down and increase their own.

“But when Farage came in the entire picture was transformed. He had name recognition, he had a stronger reputation after going into the jungle and he had political brand assets that others didn’t have, such as sort of frank speaking and sort of perceived strength and speaking the truth on things like immigration.

“So certainly from my perspective as a pollster in the campaign that was a transformative moment.”

Mr Johnson said the row over Mr Lowe may damage Reform “in the short term”.

The former Brexit Party MEP was last week reported to police and had the whip suspended over claims of violent threats against the party chairman and allegations of office bullying, which he denies.

Splits emerged after Mr Lowe said that Reform remained a “protest party led by the messiah” under Mr Farage.

“But I imagine that the rationale is that it’s better to get this pain out the way now than have this bugging them for the entire parliamentary term and closer to an election.

“And I suppose their calculation is that it’s better to have this guy out than in and that may end up being a politically savvy choice.

“So there might be a short-term hit but if they can get their act together and united again then no one’s going to remember this in four years’ time.”

It comes as new YouGov polling found a third of Reform voters think the party would be doing better under another leader.

Nigel Farage Is Reform’s ‘Only Ticket’ to 10 Downing Street, Top Pollster Warns

Nigel Farage remains the central figure in Reform UK’s political strategy, but questions about his personal popularity and the party’s ability to broaden its appeal are becoming increasingly important as Britain’s political landscape changes.

The Reform UK leader has built his career around challenging the established parties, campaigning for stricter immigration controls and presenting himself as an alternative to Westminster’s political establishment. His public profile has been a major part of the party’s identity, helping it attract voters dissatisfied with Labour and the Conservatives.

Yet that reliance on one leader creates a difficult question for Reform: can the party turn its support into a credible governing programme while depending so heavily on Farage’s personal appeal?

The warning that Farage is Reform’s “only ticket” to 10 Downing Street captures the importance of his leadership to the party’s ambitions. It also highlights the tension between having a recognisable political figure at the centre of a movement and convincing a broader electorate that the organisation is ready to govern.

Farage’s leadership at the centre of Reform’s strategy

Reform has made Farage the face of its campaign to challenge Britain’s traditional political parties. His experience in the Brexit movement, his familiarity with television interviews and his ability to communicate in short, memorable messages have helped the party maintain a prominent place in national debate.

For supporters, Farage represents consistency on issues that they believe have been neglected for too long. Immigration, national sovereignty, the cost of living and dissatisfaction with government are central to the party’s message.

His role also gives Reform a recognisable identity. In a crowded political environment, voters can quickly associate the party with its leader and the issues he emphasises.

But the relationship between leader and party can work in both directions. A leader’s popularity can help attract support, while controversies involving that individual can become a problem for the entire organisation.

That challenge has become more significant as Reform has attempted to present itself as a credible alternative government rather than simply a vehicle for protest.

A party seeking power must demonstrate that it has experienced personnel, coherent policies and a team capable of making difficult decisions. Voters need to know not only what its leader believes, but also who would implement the programme and how the government would respond when its promises encounter practical obstacles.

What the polling says about Farage

Recent polling provides a useful illustration of the distinction between support for a party and confidence in its leader.

In September 2026, Sky News election analyst Professor Rob Ford examined the changes in Reform’s polling position and Farage’s personal ratings. His analysis found that Reform’s average voting-intention share across nine polling organisations had fallen by eight percentage points between August 2025 and August 2026, moving from the low thirties to the mid-twenties. <Cite refs={[“turn720087search0”]}/>

The analysis also reported a deterioration in Farage’s personal ratings. In the comparison cited by Ford, average approval of his performance as leader fell from 36 per cent in autumn 2025 to 25 per cent in 2026, while disapproval rose from 38 per cent to 54 per cent.

Those figures are a snapshot of public attitudes over a particular period, not a forecast of the next general election. Polls can change as parties announce policies, leaders respond to events and voters reassess their options.

Nevertheless, the figures illustrate a strategic difficulty for Reform. A party can continue to attract support on issues such as immigration while facing questions about whether its leader has the wider appeal required to lead a government.

Ford’s analysis argued that Farage’s personal ratings had become a concern for the party, especially as rival leaders sought to present themselves as credible alternatives. <Cite refs={[“turn720087search0”]}/>

The distinction matters because voting intention and preferred prime minister are different measures. Someone may support a party because of its policies while remaining uncertain about the person leading it. Conversely, a popular leader may attract favourable personal ratings without guaranteeing that their party will win enough constituencies to govern.

The challenge posed by Andy Burnham

Labour’s leadership change has added another dimension to the contest.

Andy Burnham became prime minister in July 2026 after succeeding Keir Starmer, according to reporting published by The Independent. His arrival initially gave Labour a boost in polling, although political analysts subsequently questioned how durable that improvement would be. <Cite refs={[“turn720087news3”]}/>

The change created a fresh comparison between Burnham and Farage. While Reform has emphasised immigration and national sovereignty, Burnham has sought to distinguish Labour through proposals involving public services, economic growth and a greater public role in parts of the economy.

For Farage, the challenge is to compete not just with an unpopular or weakened incumbent but with a rival who may initially benefit from renewed public interest.

However, a temporary increase in support for a new leader does not establish that the advantage will last. Pollsters have warned that changes in political leadership can produce short-lived improvements that must eventually be sustained through policy decisions and government performance.

The wider lesson is that Reform cannot assume its opponents will remain politically vulnerable. Labour and the Conservatives can change their leaders, revise their programmes and attempt to win back voters who have become dissatisfied with them.

Reform’s ability to maintain public support will depend partly on how effectively it responds to those changes.

Why the party cannot rely on immigration alone

Immigration remains one of Reform’s defining issues, and polling analysts have noted that it continues to rank among the concerns that voters consider important. <Cite refs={[“turn720087search0”]}/>

Farage has argued that the country needs tighter border controls, a stronger response to unauthorised Channel crossings and significant changes to the way migration is managed.

Those policies appeal to voters who believe successive governments have failed to enforce immigration rules effectively. Supporters argue that restoring confidence in the system requires clear targets, consistent enforcement and a credible process for removing people who have no legal right to remain.

But a governing party would also have to explain how its proposals would work in practice. It would need to address asylum law, international cooperation, the practicalities of deportation and the economic consequences of changes to migration.

The wider electoral challenge is that voters rarely base their entire decision on a single issue. The NHS, housing, taxation, wages, pensions, schools and public safety can all influence how people assess a potential government.

Reform therefore needs to demonstrate that it can address these concerns alongside immigration. A persuasive opposition message is not the same as a complete governing programme.

Farage’s public profile may help the party communicate its priorities, but the credibility of its policies will depend on the detail behind the slogans.

Internal unity and the question of succession

The party’s reliance on Farage also raises questions about its internal organisation.

Reform has experienced disputes involving former senior figures, including Rupert Lowe and Ben Habib. Lowe went on to establish Restore Britain, while Habib pursued his own political project. Their disagreements with Farage have highlighted different views about leadership, immigration policy and the direction of the political right.

Such disputes do not automatically undermine a party’s electoral prospects. Political organisations routinely experience disagreements over strategy and personnel.

However, a party that is closely associated with one leader may find it harder to develop a distinct institutional identity. If every major decision becomes a test of loyalty to the leader, it can be difficult to demonstrate that the organisation has the depth and experience required for government.

Reform’s leadership must therefore balance the advantages of Farage’s public profile with the need to develop a capable team. Potential ministers must be able to explain policy, withstand scrutiny and demonstrate competence in their respective areas.

A successful governing party needs a clear leader, but it also needs credible people and effective systems behind that leader.

What would it take to reach Downing Street?

Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system means that national polling percentages alone cannot determine who becomes prime minister. Parties must win individual constituencies, and the distribution of votes can be as important as the overall share.

A party with substantial nationwide support may still struggle to secure a parliamentary majority if its voters are spread inefficiently across constituencies. Competition from other parties can also affect the result, particularly where support is divided among candidates with overlapping political platforms.

For Reform, the practical task is to translate its national profile into constituency-level organisation. That requires selecting candidates who can campaign effectively, building local networks and persuading voters that the party is prepared to take responsibility for government.

It also requires convincing people who may agree with some Reform policies but remain uncertain about Farage himself.

The party would need to demonstrate fiscal credibility, explain how it would fund public services and show that its immigration proposals could be implemented lawfully. It would also need to convince voters that it could respond to unexpected crises and manage the competing demands placed on a government.

Those tests cannot be passed through personality alone.

Farage’s strength and Reform’s vulnerability

The argument that Farage is Reform’s “only ticket” to Downing Street reflects the extent to which the party’s public identity is tied to its leader. His prominence gives Reform an immediate recognisable face, but it also means that his personal standing is closely connected to the party’s wider prospects.

The polling evidence suggests that Reform faces a challenge in maintaining its support and persuading voters that Farage is ready to lead the country. It does not, however, establish the result of the next general election or prove that the party cannot recover.

Much will depend on the decisions made by Reform and its competitors in the months ahead. Economic conditions, policy announcements, leadership performances and events that cannot yet be anticipated will all influence public opinion.

For Farage, the task is to show that his party offers more than a compelling political message. For Reform, it is to demonstrate that the organisation can function as a credible government, with a team and programme capable of delivering its promises.

Ultimately, reaching 10 Downing Street would require more than a prominent leader or favourable headlines. It would require winning enough constituencies, sustaining public confidence and persuading a broad range of voters that the party is prepared for the responsibilities of power.

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