Mr Burnham said the Government “will keep going at this issue” until small boat crossings are stopped, but did not commit to a timeline.

Shadow home secretary Chris Philp told The Sun: “Open-borders Burnham has offered nothing but platitudes. He’s given zero indication he will do anything differently to Sir Keir Starmer‘s failed record on tackling illegal immigration.

A Government spokesperson said: “We’re cracking dow on these reckless and dangerous gangs. Small boat crossings are down significantly this year.”

POLL: Do You Trust Andy Burnham to Cut the Number of Small Boat Migrants Arriving in the UK?

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has promised to take a tougher and more practical approach to the UK’s small boat crisis, declaring that his government will be “relentless” in tackling the criminal gangs behind Channel crossings. But as thousands of migrants continue to make the dangerous journey from France to Britain, an important question is now being asked: do voters actually trust Burnham to reduce the number of people arriving by small boat?

The issue is becoming one of the biggest tests of Burnham’s new premiership. Immigration was already a politically sensitive subject before he entered Downing Street, and his government is now under pressure to demonstrate that it can secure Britain’s borders while maintaining an asylum system that protects people genuinely fleeing persecution.

Burnham has attempted to strike a balance between stronger enforcement and the creation of safe and legal routes. During a visit to Dover, he said the public wanted to see control restored at the border, while arguing that Britain should also provide support for people who genuinely need protection. He said his government was putting the “building blocks” of a different approach into place.

The Prime Minister’s message is clear: the government wants to disrupt the gangs rather than simply focus on the migrants themselves.

That distinction is important because people-smuggling organisations are at the centre of the crisis. These criminal networks arrange dangerous crossings, often using overcrowded and unsuitable boats. Their activities have turned the English Channel into one of Europe’s most visible migration routes and have repeatedly raised concerns about deaths and serious injuries.

Burnham believes that targeting the smugglers can reduce crossings over the long term.

His government has therefore increased resources for the National Crime Agency. The number of officers working on organised immigration crime has risen to nearly 800, compared with 376 at the beginning of 2025. Authorities say more than 1,100 boats and engines have been seized since the 2024 election, while international cooperation has disrupted tens of thousands of attempted crossings.

There is also evidence that the number of small boat arrivals has fallen significantly this year.

Provisional figures reported in early August showed around 14,526 people had crossed the Channel by small boat in 2026, approximately 43% fewer than during the same period in 2025. Crossings were also below the equivalent figure for 2024.

On the surface, those figures give Burnham something positive to point to.

The government can argue that its approach is already producing results. Ministers have highlighted increased enforcement, cooperation with France and efforts to dismantle smuggling networks as reasons for the decline.

However, the numbers also demonstrate why the political argument is far from settled.

Even with the year-on-year fall, thousands of people are still making the crossing. In one particularly busy period after Burnham became Prime Minister, more than 2,000 people arrived in small boats within roughly two weeks. One day in late July saw 752 arrivals, the highest single-day total recorded so far in 2026.

For voters watching images of boats crossing the Channel, a 43% reduction may not necessarily feel like success.

The political question is therefore more complicated than simply asking whether the numbers are lower than last year. The real question is whether Burnham can produce a sustained reduction and eventually regain public confidence that the government has control of the border.

That is why the poll question is so significant.

Do you trust Andy Burnham to cut the number of small boat migrants arriving in the UK?

There are good reasons why some voters might answer yes.

First, the figures have already moved in the government’s preferred direction. A reduction of more than 40% compared with the same period last year is substantial. The government has also increased enforcement resources and strengthened cooperation with French authorities.

Second, Burnham has not ignored public concern about immigration. His language has been noticeably firm. He has acknowledged that people do not want to see Britain’s borders appearing uncontrolled and has promised to continue tackling the issue.

Third, Burnham is attempting to address the underlying criminal infrastructure. Supporters argue that simply intercepting individual boats does not solve the problem if smuggling gangs remain capable of launching new crossings.

The government therefore wants to combine border enforcement with international cooperation, criminal investigations and alternative routes for people seeking asylum.

But there are also strong reasons for voters to remain sceptical.

One of the biggest is the fact that crossings continue despite years of government action. Successive British governments have promised to reduce Channel crossings, yet the problem has proved remarkably difficult to eliminate.

Smuggling organisations have repeatedly adapted to enforcement measures. Experts have noted that smugglers can change launch locations, alter routes and use different types of boats when authorities increase pressure in one area.

This makes Burnham’s promise particularly difficult to fulfil.

He has not given voters a precise timetable for eliminating small boat crossings. Instead, he has promised to keep working on the issue until the system is brought under control.

That may be politically sensible because immigration is influenced by factors beyond the direct control of the British government. Wars, economic conditions, weather, migration routes and decisions taken by other European countries can all affect the number of people attempting to reach Britain.

But the absence of a specific target also creates a problem.

If crossings remain high, critics can accuse Burnham of failing to deliver. If numbers fall, the government can claim success. The political argument will therefore continue regardless of short-term fluctuations.

Weather is another important factor.

Channel crossings are strongly influenced by conditions at sea. Calm weather can make crossings more likely, while strong winds and rough seas can discourage departures. That means annual comparisons need to be interpreted carefully. Researchers have pointed out that factors outside government policy may have contributed to the decline in arrivals during 2026.

This does not mean government policy has had no impact. Rather, it means that it is difficult to determine exactly how much of the reduction can be attributed to Burnham’s policies.

The issue of France is equally important.

Britain has invested heavily in cooperation with French authorities to prevent boats from leaving the French coastline. The two governments have attempted to increase patrols and disrupt smuggling operations before migrants reach the sea.

But the relationship remains controversial.

British politicians have repeatedly questioned whether French authorities are doing enough to stop crossings, while French officials argue that they face legal and practical limitations when intervening on beaches.

Burnham therefore cannot solve the crisis alone.

His government needs cooperation from France, Belgium and other European countries. It also needs effective intelligence-sharing and international action against criminal organisations.

This is why Burnham’s proposal for safe routes has become an important part of his strategy.

The Prime Minister argues that people genuinely seeking protection should have a legal alternative to paying criminal gangs to cross the Channel. The idea is that safe routes could reduce the market available to smugglers.

Critics, however, fear that expanding legal routes could encourage more people to attempt to reach Britain or create additional pressure on an already stretched asylum system.

The debate reflects a fundamental disagreement over how migration should be managed.

One side argues that the government must create a controlled and legal system while aggressively targeting criminal networks.

The other argues that Britain must focus primarily on deterrence, removals and preventing people from reaching the country in the first place.

Reform UK has adopted the latter position particularly strongly, giving the party an opportunity to attack Burnham from the right.

This could become a serious political problem for the Prime Minister.

Reform has built much of its support around concerns about immigration and border control. If Burnham cannot convince voters that his policies are producing visible results, Reform can argue that Labour is simply continuing the policies of previous governments.

At the same time, Burnham must consider voters on Labour’s left.

Some Labour MPs and activists have already criticised tougher immigration proposals. The government’s plans to make settlement more difficult and introduce stricter immigration rules have generated internal debate. Burnham therefore faces pressure from both directions.

If he moves too far towards tougher enforcement, he could alienate parts of Labour’s traditional support.

If he moves too slowly, he risks losing voters to Reform.

That makes the small boat issue one of the most difficult balancing acts of his premiership.

There is also a human dimension that should not be forgotten.

People crossing the Channel in small boats are often travelling in extremely dangerous conditions. The boats can be overcrowded, poorly maintained and unsuitable for long journeys. Deaths in the Channel have repeatedly demonstrated the risks involved.

Burnham has therefore framed the issue partly as a humanitarian problem as well as a border-security problem.

His argument is that Britain needs both control and compassion.

The challenge is turning that principle into a system that works.

For voters, trust will ultimately depend on results.

They will want to know whether crossings are falling consistently, whether criminal gangs are being dismantled, whether successful asylum applicants are being processed quickly and whether people who have no right to remain in Britain are removed.

They will also want to know whether the government can prevent the system from becoming overwhelmed.

The latest evidence provides Burnham with some encouragement. Small boat arrivals are significantly lower than at the same point last year, and the government has increased enforcement resources.

But the problem has not disappeared.

Indeed, the fact that more than 750 people arrived on a single day demonstrates how quickly the situation can change.

That is why the coming months will be crucial.

If Burnham can maintain the downward trend, he will have a strong argument that his strategy is working. If crossings begin rising again, political pressure will intensify rapidly.

The Prime Minister’s personal popularity may also influence how voters judge his performance. Burnham began his premiership with a strong public image, but immigration is one of those issues where personal popularity can quickly become secondary to perceptions of competence.

Voters may like Burnham but still conclude that his government is failing to control the border.

Ultimately, the poll question is not simply about Andy Burnham personally. It is a test of whether the public believes the British government can regain control over one of the most politically sensitive issues in the country.

There is evidence on both sides.

The number of small boat arrivals is down sharply compared with 2025. Enforcement resources have increased. The government says its work with international partners is beginning to disrupt smuggling networks.

Yet thousands continue to cross, smugglers continue to adapt and the government has not promised a precise date by which crossings will be stopped.

So, do you trust Andy Burnham to cut the number of small boat migrants arriving in the UK?

The answer will depend on what voters consider success.

If success means reducing crossings substantially compared with previous years, Burnham already has some evidence in his favour.

If success means bringing crossings close to zero, the government has a much harder task ahead.

And if success means convincing the British public that the border is firmly under control, the Prime Minister has perhaps his most difficult challenge of all.

For now, the numbers offer Burnham an opportunity. But the poll suggests the political battle is only beginning. The coming months will determine whether his promise to be “relentless” becomes a genuine turning point in Britain’s small boat crisis—or another political pledge that voters eventually lose faith in.
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