Nigel Farage, pictured here launching Reform’s 2026 local election campaign, will be pleased at the (Image: Getty)

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has triumphed in another pair of council by-elections, as Labour crashed to a devastating defeat by the Greens. The insurgent party stormed to victory in the Tottingham ward on Bury Council, coming from nothing to win 39.5% of the vote and wrest the seat from the Conservatives, whose vote share slumped by 19.1%.

And to prove it is not just winning votes from the Tories, Reform also gained the Wigmore ward in Luton from the Liberal Democrats with 32.9% of the vote. The Lib Dems’ 30.4% was a 24.2% drop from the last time an election was contested in the seat. The Greens, meanwhile, gave Labour a bloody nose by winning Rossendale’s Hareholme and Waterfoot ward, with Reform knocking Sir Keir Starmer’s party into third.

Labour’s vote share collapsed by 27.9%, while the Tories lost 17.6%.

It means that in the 228 council by-elections fought since May 2025, Reform has won 80, with the Lib Dems taking 64 and Labour just 17.

It indicates that Reform is on course to spark a political earthquake at the May local elections, in which a polling expert predicts it could win a staggering 2,260 seats.

Labour has been warned it could lose as many as 2,000 councillors in a brutal night, with the Tories also set to lose 1,000.

Zack Polanski’s Green Party is likely to be a huge beneficiary, boosting its numbers on councils across the country by about 450, according to leading psephologist Steve Fisher.

If his predictions come true, Reform UK’s gains would dwarf those of Labour under new leader Tony Blair in 1995.

In that year, Labour won 1,661 seats, paving the way for a landslide General Election victory two years later.

By contrast, the backlash against Sir Keir after a series of scandals could make 2026 Labour’s worst defeat on record.

The Prime Minister and his party have tanked in the polls after a series of controversial policies and U-turns, including on winter fuel payments and inheritance tax changes for farmers.

His premiership is said to be on the line after the Mandelson scandal, with questions raised over the PM’s judgement after he appointed the Labour peer as ambassador to the US despite his links to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

A bad set of local election results in May could heap further pressure on Sir Keir to quit, critics have warned.

Reform Surges to Double By-Election Victory as Labour Suffers Devastating Collapse

Britain’s political landscape is facing another moment of uncertainty as Reform UK seeks to build on its electoral momentum, with claims of a doubled by-election victory placing fresh pressure on Labour and the wider political establishment. For Nigel Farage, such a result would offer an opportunity to argue that his party is becoming a powerful force in British politics. For Labour, it would raise difficult questions about voter confidence, the government’s priorities and its ability to maintain support beyond its traditional strongholds.

The political consequences could reach far beyond the constituencies involved. By-elections often provide an early indication of changing public attitudes, particularly when voters use them to express frustration with the government. A dramatic swing towards Reform would intensify the debate over immigration, living costs, public services and whether Britain’s established parties still understand the concerns of ordinary people.

However, the precise scale of any victory and the extent of Labour’s losses must be judged against the official results of the specific contests. The broader question is whether Reform can convert growing attention into lasting electoral success while Labour struggles to persuade voters that its programme is delivering meaningful change.

Nigel Farage Seizes the Opportunity

Reform UK has built much of its appeal around a straightforward political argument: Britain needs a different approach because the traditional parties have failed to address problems that matter to voters.

Nigel Farage has repeatedly focused on immigration control, national sovereignty, public spending and dissatisfaction with Westminster. His campaigning style is designed to present Reform as an alternative to what supporters see as an established political class that has become disconnected from everyday life.

A strong by-election performance would reinforce that message. It could persuade supporters that their votes can influence the political direction of the country, while encouraging undecided voters to consider a party they may previously have regarded as a protest movement.

Electoral victories also create opportunities for greater visibility. Media coverage can place Reform’s policies at the centre of national debate, while successful candidates can become familiar figures in their constituencies. This can help the party build a stronger local presence and attract people who want to become involved in its campaigns.

Yet the transition from protest politics to a credible governing alternative is not automatic. Reform must demonstrate that its policies are practical, that its candidates can represent diverse communities and that its organisation can cope with greater scrutiny.

The party’s challenge is therefore twofold: capitalise on dissatisfaction with Labour and the Conservatives while convincing voters that it can offer solutions beyond criticism of its opponents.

Labour Faces a Growing Test of Public Confidence

For Labour, the possibility of a devastating by-election defeat would create an uncomfortable political dilemma. Governments usually expect voters to judge them on their record, and that scrutiny becomes particularly intense when the promises made before an election meet the practical realities of governing.

Many voters judge political performance through their household budgets. Food prices, energy bills, rent, mortgage payments and the cost of raising children can influence how people feel about the economy, regardless of what official statistics indicate.

When families continue to experience financial pressure, government announcements may struggle to generate enthusiasm unless people can see tangible improvements in their daily lives.

Public services are another major concern. The NHS, local councils, schools and social care all shape people’s experiences of government. Labour must demonstrate that its plans can improve services and that public money is being used effectively.

Immigration presents a further challenge. Voters hold different views on migration, asylum and Britain’s international responsibilities, but border enforcement and the management of asylum accommodation remain politically sensitive issues. If people believe the government has failed to deliver on its commitments, Reform can use that dissatisfaction to strengthen its appeal.

Labour’s difficulty is that these issues cannot necessarily be resolved through quick announcements. Many require funding, administrative capacity, legislation and cooperation between different institutions. But voters may have limited patience when they believe progress is too slow.

A poor by-election result would therefore intensify pressure on the government to explain what it is doing differently and when the public can expect to see results.

Why Voters May Be Turning Away From the Major Parties

Political loyalties in Britain have changed considerably over recent years. Traditional party identification has weakened in some communities, while voters have become more willing to switch between parties or support smaller alternatives.

For some former Labour supporters, dissatisfaction may be linked to economic insecurity, concerns about immigration or a perception that their communities have not received sufficient attention. Others may feel that the party’s national priorities do not reflect their local circumstances.

Former Conservative voters have also faced difficult choices. Some remain frustrated with the party’s record in government, while others believe it has not offered a sufficiently convincing alternative to Labour. Reform has sought to attract these voters by presenting itself as more willing to challenge existing political assumptions.

This creates a complicated electoral environment. Labour cannot assume that previous supporters will remain loyal simply because they oppose the Conservatives. Similarly, the Conservatives cannot assume that voters who are dissatisfied with Labour will automatically return to them.

Reform’s opportunity lies in persuading these different groups that their frustrations can be channelled into a common political project.

However, dissatisfaction does not always translate into permanent support. Some voters may choose Reform to send a warning to the government but reconsider their decision at a general election. Others may support the party on immigration while disagreeing with its economic or public-service proposals.

The durability of Reform’s advance will depend on whether it can build a coalition broad enough to survive the pressures of a national campaign.

The Conservatives Are Caught in a Difficult Battle

Reform’s rise also places the Conservative Party under considerable pressure. For years, the Conservatives dominated much of the right-of-centre political debate, but Farage’s party has challenged that position by attracting voters who want a tougher approach to immigration and a sharper break with the political establishment.

Conservative leaders must decide how to respond. Moving closer to Reform’s positions could help recover some voters, but it might also alienate supporters who prefer a more moderate approach. Refusing to engage with Reform’s arguments could leave the party vulnerable to further defections.

The competition is not limited to policy. Leadership credibility, candidate quality, local organisation and the ability to communicate a consistent message can all influence electoral performance.

Any discussion of cooperation between Reform and the Conservatives would raise additional questions about constituencies, candidate selection and policy commitments. An agreement might reduce competition between the parties in certain areas, but it could also provoke resistance among members who want to preserve their party’s independence.

Meanwhile, if both parties contest the same seats, the distribution of right-leaning votes could have a major impact on which candidates win.

For the Conservatives, the central challenge is to demonstrate that they can recover public trust without appearing to abandon their own political identity.

By-Elections Can Trigger Wider Political Consequences

By-elections rarely determine the fate of a government on their own, but a series of poor results can have a powerful psychological and political effect.

A dramatic defeat may prompt MPs to question the government’s strategy, encourage internal criticism and generate demands for policy changes. Party officials may reassess campaign messages, examine local voting patterns and investigate why particular groups of voters have moved elsewhere.

If Reform repeatedly performs strongly, Labour may find it harder to dismiss the party as a temporary protest phenomenon. Even constituencies that Reform does not win could become more competitive, forcing Labour and the Conservatives to devote additional resources to defending them.

There are, however, important limitations to what by-election results can tell us. Turnout is often lower than at a general election, and local candidates, constituency issues and unusual circumstances can affect the outcome. A result in one area may not accurately represent the views of voters across the whole country.

The strongest evidence of a lasting political realignment would be a consistent pattern across multiple constituencies, supported by national polling and repeated electoral performances.

For now, the most important question is whether Reform’s gains represent a temporary expression of frustration or a deeper shift in the way British voters view the established parties.

Immigration, the Economy and Public Services Take Centre Stage

The contest between Labour and Reform is likely to be shaped by several connected issues.

Immigration and border control remain central to Reform’s political identity. The party argues that Britain needs a more restrictive system and stronger enforcement. Labour must demonstrate that its own policies can be implemented effectively while meeting legal obligations and treating people fairly.

The cost of living will continue to influence public confidence. Voters want evidence that employment, wages, housing affordability and household financial security are improving. Even when economic conditions stabilise, many families may continue to feel the effects of earlier price rises.

The NHS and public services are another crucial test. Improvements in access to treatment, waiting times and local services could help Labour rebuild confidence. Continued difficulties, on the other hand, could strengthen the argument that established political promises have not translated into results.

Trust and accountability may prove equally important. Voters want politicians to explain difficult decisions honestly and acknowledge when policies fail. Parties that appear defensive or disconnected risk deepening public frustration.

These issues are interconnected. Economic insecurity can intensify concerns about public spending, while pressure on local services can influence debates over population growth and government priorities. Political parties that offer credible, detailed responses may be better positioned than those relying solely on dramatic slogans.

Can Reform Turn Electoral Momentum Into Lasting Power?

Winning individual by-elections can establish credibility, but building a national political force requires sustained organisation.

Reform must recruit capable candidates, maintain effective local campaigning and demonstrate that its proposals can withstand detailed examination. It must also address the practical challenges associated with public administration, including the cost of policies, their legal implications and the capacity of government departments to deliver them.

Britain’s electoral system adds another complication. A party’s national vote share does not translate directly into an equivalent share of parliamentary seats. Where support is concentrated and where it is spread across constituencies can make a substantial difference to the final outcome.

Reform therefore needs more than a strong national message. It must identify where it can win, develop credible local candidates and persuade voters that supporting the party will produce practical results.

Farage’s challenge will be to preserve the party’s outsider appeal while demonstrating that it has the discipline and expertise needed for greater political responsibility.

Labour, meanwhile, still has opportunities to respond. Governments can recover from difficult electoral periods if they address public concerns, improve delivery and present a convincing explanation of their priorities. But recovery becomes harder when disappointing results accumulate and voters begin to believe that change is unlikely.

A Warning for Westminster

If Reform UK has doubled its by-election victories while Labour has suffered a major collapse, the result would represent a significant warning for Britain’s established political parties. It would suggest that dissatisfaction is translating into electoral action and that Farage’s party is becoming an increasingly serious competitor.

For Labour, the priority would be to rebuild public confidence by demonstrating progress on living standards, public services and immigration management. For Reform, the challenge would be to prove that electoral momentum can be sustained through credible policies, strong candidates and effective organisation. For the Conservatives, the pressure to define a clear response to Farage’s advance would become even more urgent.

The political consequences could extend well beyond the immediate contests. Party leaders may be forced to reconsider their strategies, MPs may demand changes in direction and voters may become increasingly willing to challenge traditional political loyalties.

But one by-election, or even a small group of contests, cannot determine the next general election by itself. The true significance of the result will depend on whether the trend continues and whether the parties can respond effectively.

Britain’s political future is increasingly shaped by a struggle over trust, identity, economic security and the role of government. If Reform continues to gain ground while Labour struggles to convince voters that its promises are becoming reality, the balance of political competition could change significantly.

The message for Westminster is clear: electoral support cannot be taken for granted. Parties that fail to respond to public concerns risk losing voters to competitors prepared to offer a different direction. Whether Reform can turn that opportunity into lasting power—and whether Labour can reverse its decline—will be among the defining questions of Britain’s next political chapter.