Does Angela Rayner have what it takes to rescue Labour? (Image: Getty Images)

Traditionally, one of the biggest problems for a leadership challenger is overcoming the British aversion to displays of naked ambition. One of Michael Heseltine’s greatest difficulties was that his hunger for the top job was all too obvious.

But if the results are as cataclysmic as Lord Hayward suggests – and if the party loses power in Wales – Ms Rayner can say she is acting in the national interest to stop Reform UK taking power after the next general election. For generations, the greatest fear a Labour Government has faced has been losing power to the Tories; but ceding power to Mr Farage represents a change of an entirely different order.

Every day she holds back gives fans of Health Secretary Wes Streeting more time to garner support among Labour MPs. If she waits months, the risk builds that Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham will find a way back into Westminster.

Supporters of Mr Burnham will urge her to strike a deal with him; to agree a common agenda to win back the millions of voters who have abandoned Labour since the 2024 landslide victory. They will encourage her to play the role of kingmaker and name her price.

Could Angela Rayner return to the cabinet or will she stand against the PM? (Image: Getty Images)

Right now, she stands a decent chance of becoming Labour’s first woman prime minister. Is Labour really going to have yet another man in the top job?

Politico’s poll of polls shows the Conservatives, Labour and the Greens all tied on 17% with Reform gliding above on 25%. These are desperate times for a once-mighty party.

Sir Keir may well argue it would be self-indulgent for Labour to stage a leadership contest when ordinary Britons are wrestling with the post-Iran cost of living crisis. But if Mrs Rayner does not stand and Labour goes the way of the old Liberal Party a century ago and is consigned to electoral oblivion she may spend the rest of her days burdened with the deepest regret. Not acting could come with a terrible cost.

Revealed: Exactly How Angela Rayner Could Have Brought Down Starmer — and Why Timing Mattered

Angela Rayner was once at the centre of one of the most closely watched potential leadership challenges in British politics. At the height of speculation in 2026, Labour MPs and Westminster commentators were asking a seemingly simple question: could Rayner replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and potentially become prime minister?

The answer depended on timing, parliamentary support and Rayner’s own willingness to act.

Today, the political situation has changed dramatically. Starmer is no longer prime minister, and Andy Burnham has taken over the leadership of the Labour government. Rayner, meanwhile, has returned to senior government, serving as Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government.

But the events surrounding the Starmer leadership crisis remain significant because they reveal how close Labour came to a leadership contest and why Rayner was repeatedly identified as one of the figures who could potentially have triggered one.

The moment when Rayner’s opportunity appeared

The most important period came ahead of the May 2026 local and devolved elections.

At the time, Starmer was facing intense pressure from Labour MPs following poor polling, internal disagreements and concerns about the party’s political direction. Rayner had already resigned from the government in 2025 following controversy surrounding her tax affairs, but she remained an influential figure within Labour.

Reports suggested that some Labour MPs wanted her to challenge Starmer if the party suffered heavy losses.

The Guardian reported that Rayner’s allies were preparing for the possibility of a leadership contest while stressing that she did not intend to trigger one herself.

That distinction was crucial.

Rayner could potentially have entered a contest if another Labour MP first succeeded in triggering one. But starting the process herself would have required her to take responsibility for removing a sitting Labour prime minister.

In an interview with ITV in May, Rayner was asked directly whether she would trigger a leadership contest.

Her answer was clear: she said she would not be the person to trigger the prime minister and start a leadership contest.

However, when asked whether she would enter a contest if somebody else triggered one, she declined to give a definitive answer.

That left the door open without committing her to a challenge.

Why the parliamentary numbers mattered

Under Labour’s leadership rules, a challenger cannot simply announce a leadership bid and automatically force a contest.

A candidate needs sufficient support from Labour MPs to enter the process.

That meant Rayner’s potential route to power depended on whether enough Labour MPs were prepared to move against Starmer.

Reports at the time suggested that this was the central difficulty facing potential challengers. Some MPs were unhappy with Starmer but were reluctant to be responsible for another leadership contest so soon after Labour had entered government.

The Financial Times reported that a challenger needed nominations from 81 Labour MPs and that none of the leading potential candidates appeared ready to act first.

This created a political stalemate.

Many MPs could privately believe that Starmer’s position was weakening while simultaneously refusing to become the first person to challenge him.

For Rayner, that meant the opportunity could disappear if she waited too long.

Rayner’s influence inside Labour

Rayner nevertheless had an important political asset: her relationship with Labour’s grassroots and trade union movement.

She had spent much of her political career presenting herself as a representative of working people and had strong connections with the trade union movement.

Polling of Labour members conducted by YouGov in May 2026 demonstrated the potential strength of that support.

In a hypothetical contest between Starmer and Rayner, the figures were close, with 49% of Labour members backing Starmer and 47% Rayner.

The same poll found that Rayner was viewed favourably by 80% of Labour members.

Those figures help explain why Labour MPs were paying close attention to her position.

However, being popular with party members is not enough by itself to become leader. A candidate must first navigate the parliamentary stage of the contest.

This created a strategic problem for Rayner: she needed enough MPs to support her without appearing to be the person responsible for destabilising the government.

Her public criticism of Starmer

Rayner also began making increasingly pointed interventions.

In March, she warned that Labour was “running out of time” to demonstrate that it could deliver meaningful change and argued that the party could not simply continue “going through the motions”.

Her comments attracted significant attention because they came from a senior former cabinet minister who had previously supported Starmer.

The Guardian reported that some Labour MPs interpreted the speech as a possible rallying call ahead of a future leadership contest. However, Rayner’s allies continued to insist that she did not intend to engineer a challenge herself.

This was a delicate balancing act.

Rayner could criticise the government’s direction without explicitly demanding Starmer’s resignation. That allowed her to position herself as someone arguing for a change in direction rather than someone openly attempting to overthrow the leader.

She also criticised elements of the government’s immigration approach, describing proposed changes as “un-British”, according to contemporary reporting.

Such interventions reinforced the perception that Rayner represented a different political emphasis from Starmer.

The tax investigation was another obstacle

There was another factor that complicated Rayner’s prospects: the HMRC investigation into her tax affairs.

Rayner had resigned from the cabinet in September 2025 after controversy surrounding underpayment of stamp duty on a property.

Her allies hoped the investigation would be resolved before the May elections. The Guardian reported that the conclusion of the investigation was regarded as an important obstacle to any future leadership bid.

For Rayner, timing therefore involved more than parliamentary arithmetic.

She needed political circumstances to create an opening, while also needing the tax issue to stop dominating coverage.

A leadership contest launched while the controversy remained unresolved could have created additional political difficulties.

What eventually happened

The anticipated leadership crisis ultimately developed in a different direction.

Starmer’s position deteriorated following the May elections, but the subsequent political process did not produce the simple Rayner-versus-Starmer contest that had been discussed earlier in the year.

Andy Burnham emerged as the central alternative within Labour and subsequently became prime minister in July 2026. Rayner was brought back into senior government as Housing, Communities and Local Government Secretary.

By September, Rayner was working as part of Burnham’s government rather than leading an opposition movement against it.

Her position has therefore changed substantially from the period when she was being discussed as a possible successor to Starmer.

Why the “do it now” argument mattered

The original argument that Rayner had to act quickly was based on the nature of leadership challenges.

Political opportunities are rarely permanent. A leader can appear vulnerable one week and regain enough support to survive the next.

For Rayner, the critical moment would have been immediately after a sufficiently serious electoral setback, when Labour MPs might have concluded that continuing with Starmer was politically unsustainable.

Waiting could have allowed the parliamentary party to regroup around another candidate.

That was particularly relevant because Burnham was already being discussed as a potential successor. Other senior Labour figures, including Wes Streeting, were also mentioned in contemporary speculation.

Rayner therefore faced a classic political dilemma: move quickly and risk being blamed for destabilising Labour, or wait and risk allowing another candidate to dominate the succession debate.

A leadership battle that never happened in the expected form

Looking back, the story is less about a secret mechanism through which Rayner could simply have “brought down” Starmer and more about the complicated rules and political calculations surrounding Labour leadership contests.

Rayner had several ingredients that could have made her a serious contender: a strong profile among Labour members, trade union connections, parliamentary experience and a distinctive political identity.

But she also faced obstacles, including the need for parliamentary nominations, uncertainty over whether MPs would support a challenge and the unresolved tax controversy at the time.

Most importantly, Rayner herself repeatedly indicated that she did not want to be the person who triggered a leadership contest.

Her May ITV interview captured the ambiguity. She refused to say that she would seek the leadership if someone else opened the contest, but she also did not rule it out.

That distinction ultimately became academic as Labour’s political trajectory changed.

With Burnham now prime minister and Rayner serving in his government, the dramatic scenario imagined earlier in the year has been overtaken by events.

The episode nevertheless illustrates how quickly British political calculations can change. A politician can be regarded as a potential successor one month and a government minister under a different leader only a few months later.

For Rayner, the crucial question in 2026 was never simply whether she had the ambition or support to challenge Starmer. It was whether the parliamentary numbers, political moment and personal circumstances would align at precisely the same time.

They did not do so in the way many Westminster observers had anticipated.

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