The Election Result That Suggests Reform Are About to Destroy Burnham’s PM Hopes

Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street was supposed to mark a dramatic change in Britain’s political fortunes.

After years of instability, Labour hoped that the popular former Greater Manchester mayor could reconnect the party with voters who had become increasingly attracted to Reform UK.

For Nigel Farage, however, the battle is far from over.

In fact, one recent election result may have provided Reform with a tantalising glimpse of how it could eventually undermine Burnham’s political project.

The result in question came not in Westminster, but in Greater Manchester, the political territory Burnham dominated for almost a decade.

And although Labour ultimately won, the figures contain a warning that Farage will be eager to exploit.

Reform came remarkably close in Burnham’s old territory

When Burnham left the Greater Manchester mayoralty to become Prime Minister, Labour needed to defend his political stronghold.

The result initially appeared to be reassuring.

Labour’s Bev Craig defeated Reform UK’s Sian Astley in the mayoral contest, winning 66.3% of the vote in the second round. But turnout was only around 25%, the lowest recorded for the Greater Manchester mayoral contest.

On the surface, this was a Labour victory.

But Reform’s ability to reach the second round matters.

It demonstrated that the party is capable of establishing itself as Labour’s principal challenger even in territory historically associated with Burnham and the Labour movement.

That is precisely the development that could worry the Prime Minister.

For years, Burnham presented Greater Manchester as evidence that Labour could govern effectively outside Westminster.

Now Reform is attempting to turn that same region into evidence that Labour’s traditional electoral coalition is breaking apart.

The Makerfield result tells a different story

There is an important irony here.

Burnham himself achieved a huge victory when he contested the Makerfield by-election in June.

According to Parliament’s official figures, Burnham won the seat with a majority of 9,231 votes, taking 54.8% of the vote. Reform’s Rob Kenyon received 34.5%, while Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd took 6.8%.

That result was a serious setback for Reform.

Farage himself admitted that he had expected Reform to receive around 18,000 votes but ended up just short of 16,000. He described the result as disappointing and blamed, in part, voters who had switched from Reform to Restore Britain.

Yet the subsequent political developments have changed the meaning of that result.

Burnham did not merely win Makerfield.

He used the victory as his route back into Parliament, subsequently became Labour leader and then became Prime Minister.

Reform now has a much bigger target.

It is no longer trying merely to stop Burnham becoming Labour leader.

It is trying to stop him remaining Prime Minister.

Reform has already forced Labour to fight for its heartlands

The most significant evidence that something has changed came during the 2026 local elections.

Reform made dramatic gains in traditionally Labour areas, including Barnsley.

Labour lost control of Barnsley council, historically one of its strongest areas, while Reform emerged as the dominant force.

That was an extraordinary development.

But Burnham’s arrival has subsequently complicated the picture.

Voters interviewed in Barnsley have suggested that some people who previously moved from Labour to Reform are reconsidering their decision under Burnham’s leadership.

That is precisely why the next stage of the political battle is so important.

Burnham has shown that he can potentially recover some Labour voters.

Farage has to show that those voters have not simply moved temporarily.

The Greater Manchester result gives Burnham some protection

It would be wrong to interpret the Greater Manchester mayoral result as evidence that Reform is about to destroy Burnham.

Quite the opposite.

Labour won convincingly.

And that victory matters.

Greater Manchester voters were given an opportunity to choose between Labour and Reform after Burnham’s departure, and Labour retained the mayoralty.

For Burnham, that provides an important political cushion.

It suggests that his personal popularity and Labour’s organisational strength remain significant in the region.

More importantly, it undermines the idea that Reform has already replaced Labour across northern England.

But politics is rarely determined by one result.

The real question is whether Reform can continue gaining ground.

The warning for Burnham is geographical

Reform does not necessarily need to win Manchester itself.

It needs to win enough constituencies surrounding Britain’s major cities to make Labour’s parliamentary majority impossible.

This is where Britain’s electoral system becomes critical.

A party can poll strongly nationwide but fail to win enough seats if its support is spread inefficiently.

Reform therefore needs to concentrate its vote in constituencies where Labour’s majority is vulnerable.

The old Labour heartlands of northern England are an obvious target.

And the 2026 local election results suggest that there are plenty of voters willing to consider switching.

That could create a serious problem for Burnham at the next general election.

Farage’s biggest weapon is no longer simply immigration

Immigration remains central to Reform’s message.

But Farage’s wider argument is becoming broader.

He wants to convince working-class voters that Labour no longer represents their interests.

That means attacking Labour over:

• the cost of living;
• housing;
• welfare;
• public services;
• taxation;
• crime;
• immigration; and
• political accountability.

Burnham has attempted to address several of these issues immediately after entering Downing Street.

His government has announced measures including a £2 bus-fare cap, the removal of VAT on energy bills and tax reductions for pubs and bars. Early polling suggested these measures helped Labour recover support.

That makes the political battle particularly interesting.

Farage needs Burnham’s government to fail.

Burnham needs to demonstrate that Labour can deliver tangible improvements quickly enough to persuade former Reform voters to return.

The polls have already moved

This is perhaps the most important development.

Before Burnham became Prime Minister, Reform was enjoying a significant lead in national polling.

But that advantage has narrowed dramatically.

A More in Common poll reported Labour on 28% and Reform on 24%, with Labour moving into first place for the first time since March 2025. Other polling also showed Labour catching Reform after Burnham took office.

That is a major problem for Farage.

But it is also a warning for Burnham.

The Prime Minister’s honeymoon period cannot last forever.

If Reform’s support begins rising again once voters have experienced Burnham’s government for several months, Labour could find itself in serious trouble.

The current polling lead is therefore less important than the direction of travel.

Burnham’s personal popularity is his greatest asset

The Prime Minister has one major advantage over the previous Labour leadership.

He is more popular.

Current polling shows Burnham with a net approval rating slightly above zero, outperforming several other senior political figures. However, only 23% of voters currently believe he will govern for the entire country.

That second figure is particularly interesting.

Burnham’s challenge is not simply to be popular.

He needs to convince voters outside Labour’s natural coalition that he is a Prime Minister for them too.

That includes voters who have supported Reform.

If he cannot do that, Farage will have an opening.

Farage is already attacking Burnham’s mandate

The Reform leader has repeatedly attacked the circumstances of Burnham’s rise.

After Burnham entered Downing Street, Farage argued that he had effectively become Prime Minister without a direct national mandate and demanded an immediate general election.

That is an argument Farage can repeat continuously.

Every Reform victory becomes evidence that Burnham should face voters.

Every Labour defeat becomes evidence that his government lacks legitimacy.

And every poll showing Reform ahead gives Farage another reason to demand an election.

Burnham, however, has rejected the idea of an early general election and has indicated that he intends to govern on the basis of Labour’s existing 2024 mandate.

That means the two sides are already preparing for a long political confrontation.

Reform’s problem is Restore Britain

There is, however, one major obstacle to Farage’s strategy.

Reform does not have the entire right-wing electorate to itself.

Restore Britain is competing for many of the same voters.

That was particularly visible in Makerfield, where Farage himself argued that thousands of voters who might normally have backed Reform instead supported Restore.

Under Britain’s first-past-the-post system, that could be disastrous.

Suppose Labour wins 36% in a constituency, Reform takes 34% and Restore takes 15%.

The combined anti-Labour vote would be much larger than Labour’s.

Yet Labour would still win the seat.

This is why Farage has an enormous incentive to prevent the right from splitting.

The Barnsley result may be more important than Makerfield

If there is one election result that should make Burnham nervous, it is not necessarily his own victory in Makerfield.

It is the dramatic shift in places such as Barnsley.

Barnsley has historically been Labour territory.

Yet Reform managed to take control of the council in the 2026 local elections.

That shows that the political realignment Farage has been predicting is not merely theoretical.

At the same time, the subsequent reaction from some Barnsley voters shows that Burnham may be capable of reversing part of that movement.

The next few years will therefore be a battle for these voters.

Farage wants them to believe that Labour has permanently abandoned them.

Burnham wants to convince them that Labour has changed.

The Manchester mayoral result is a warning—but not the one Farage might claim

There is a temptation to describe Labour’s Greater Manchester victory as a defeat for Reform.

That is certainly true electorally.

But the result also reveals how the political landscape has changed.

Reform was able to reach the second round in the mayoral contest.

That alone would have been extraordinary a few years ago.

And it came after Reform’s huge local-election gains across northern England.

Labour has recovered, but Reform has not disappeared.

The political map is therefore much more competitive than it was before.

That is what should concern Burnham.

Burnham’s real enemy is complacency

The greatest danger for the Prime Minister is not necessarily a sudden Reform surge.

It is assuming that his current recovery will continue automatically.

Burnham has benefited from a dramatic change in Labour’s leadership.

He is more charismatic than his predecessor.

He has introduced popular early measures.

And Labour has recovered the lead in some national polls.

But voters will eventually judge the government on outcomes.

If wages remain under pressure, public services struggle, immigration becomes more controversial or taxes rise, Reform will have another opening.

Farage will be waiting.

The next election could become a direct Burnham-Farage contest

That is the bigger significance of the latest results.

Burnham’s rise has created a completely new political confrontation.

The next general election could effectively become a contest between two competing visions of Britain’s future.

Burnham will argue that Labour can modernise the state, strengthen public services and rebuild neglected communities.

Farage will argue that Westminster has failed and that only Reform can deliver a genuine political revolution.

The battle for northern England could determine which argument wins.

The verdict

So, does the latest election result prove that Reform is about to destroy Andy Burnham’s hopes of remaining Prime Minister?

No—not yet.

The Greater Manchester mayoral result actually gave Burnham a strong defence.

Labour retained a key stronghold, while Burnham’s early premiership has helped Labour move ahead of Reform in several polls.

But Reform’s strong performance in Labour heartlands, particularly its takeover of Barnsley council, demonstrates that the underlying political realignment has not disappeared.

And that is the real warning.

Burnham has managed to stop Reform’s advance for now.

He has not necessarily reversed it.

If Reform can maintain its support in northern England, overcome the challenge from Restore Britain and turn strong local performances into Westminster victories, Farage could eventually make Labour’s traditional heartlands almost impossible for Burnham to defend.

The Prime Minister therefore has a very simple political task.

He must win back the voters who left Labour before Nigel Farage turns their temporary rebellion into a permanent realignment.

The Greater Manchester result suggests Burnham can do it.

The Barnsley result suggests he has very little room for error.