A man and child call out for a boat in the Channel (Image: Carl Court/Getty)
Grim migrant death toll figures released to the Sunday Express today show a staggering loss of life in the Channel – and experts have warned the true scale of the tragedy could be far higher. According to the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, the number of migrant deaths from small boat crossing attempts reached at least 180 last week – measured from 2018 when crossings began in larger numbers.
But Senior Researcher Dr Mihnea Cuibus said “the real toll may be higher than available numbers suggest”.
“Around 80% of all recorded deaths happened at sea, while migrants were trying to board vessels or were already on board,” Dr Cuibus added.
“Most other incidents were only recorded after bodies were found on the beach, making it difficult to determine the exact circumstances of death. In a few cases, migrants died on inland canals in Northern France, while their boat was making its way out to sea.
“In many cases, there is limited information on who the victims were, or in what circumstances they died. Some incidents likely remain unrecorded, meaning that the real toll may be higher than available numbers suggest.”
An inflatable on a beach in France (Image: Getty)
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And according to the UN International Organization for Migration (IOM), which measures deaths both on land and at sea since 2014, the scale of fatalities in attempts to reach the UK has reached at least 382 deaths, including “31 women and 43 children”.
Concurring with researchers from Oxford University, the IOM told the Sunday Express the figures were “minimum estimates” and that “the true number is likely higher”.
A spokesperson said: “Since records began in 2014, IOM’s Missing Migrants Project has recorded 382 deaths on routes from mainland Europe to the UK, including in the English Channel, on land before departure and in the Eurotunnel. This includes 31 women and 43 children.
“Of the 382 people recorded, 363 remains were recovered and 19 people went missing at sea. In 2024, the deadliest year recorded for the Channel, 85 people died or went missing. A further 22 deaths have been recorded so far in 2026.
“These figures are minimum estimates, and the true number is likely higher. Information is often fragmented across countries and institutions, and there is no consistently coordinated transnational system for tracing missing migrants.”
“Behind every figure is a person, a family and a community. The conversation must move beyond numbers and recognise both the human lives lost and the families still waiting for answers. IOM is the only international organisation tracking the number of people who lose their lives on migration journeys worldwide. Making these deaths, and the people behind the numbers, visible is essential to protecting human dignity and preventing further loss of life.”
Migrants link hands in the Channel as they await a boat pick up. (Image: Getty)
Dr Cuibus and researchers from the University of Oxford found most migrants die from drowning, however many are also killed during the mad scramble for the boats.
He said: “The most common cause of death in the Channel is drowning, accounting for more than three quarters of recorded victims.
“And others die because of crushing and suffocation, either on overcrowded boats or during a scramble at boarding.
“It can be difficult to determine the identity of victims, especially when bodies are discovered days after the incident.
“Around three quarters of recorded victims were men, similar to migrants who successfully reach the UK.
“Nationality data are only available for half of all recorded deaths, though they largely match the main countries of origin among small boat arrivals. The top countries of origin among victims were Eritrea, Afghanistan, and Iraq.”
Andy Burnham’s new bombshell plan could mark ‘beginning of the end’ for PM
The prime minister has vowed to reform the social care system.
Andy Burnham has vowed to reform the social care system (Image: Getty)
Good Morning Britain presenter Susanna Reid has voiced concerns that if Andy Burnham‘s new plans involve targeting pensioners, then it could mark the “beginning of the end” of his time in office. On Sunday (September 27), the prime minister said he is prepared to make unpopular choices and hike taxes to fund an NHS-style social care system. However, he has been warned against scrapping the triple lock, which ensures the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest of inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%.
Susanna, 55, highlighted the major problem Keir Starmer faced when he came into office after removing the winter fuel allowance for pensioners, sparking widespread outrage. She argued that while the social care system needs to be reformed, questions remain over how it will be funded. “Unfortunately, there is a massive issue about how we pay for it because it would cost billions,” Susanna said. Of course, that would be a worthwhile investment, but that money has to come from somewhere.”
A Good Morning Britain viewer who got in touch via WhatsApp said: “I hope Burnham doesn’t make the same mistake which Starmer did by targeting pensioners who don’t get much, especially if they only get the state pension.”
Susanna explained: “Because it could be a removal of the triple lock on pensioners. The comparison is being made with Starmer coming in and removing the winter fuel allowance. That was the beginning of the end for that prime minister.”
Ed Balls added: “That is right. Andy Burnham is passionate about this. He says he is going to rip the plaster off. He has been campaigning for a tax rise or more money for social care for the past 15 years.”
Susanna acknowledged: “It’s really honourable and we all want social care fixed.”
Ed pointed out where Starmer went wrong, arguing that he won the election on a manifesto pledge to retain the winter fuel payment, only to go back on his word and scrap it after taking office.
Susanna Reid pointed out that Keir Starmer’s decision to scrap the winter fuel payment marked the “beginning of the end” of his time in office (Image: ITV)
The presenter went on: “Andy Burnham is not going to make that mistake because he is going to announce on Tuesday what will be in the next manifesto for Labour.
“He says the only solution on social care is to break the manifesto from the last time round. That either means a rise in income tax, National Insurance or VAT to pay for it.”
“Or it means something else, and everybody is saying in the papers today that it looks likely that he will drop the triple lock on pensions.
“That therefore means pensioners will end up, in some sense, paying for this. What Andy Burnham did yesterday on the Laura Kuenssberg show was announce the most central, controversial proposal.”
Ed added: “It is absolutely massive.”
Susanna weighed in: “Yes, because there is a huge row about how we pay for our defence. And can you do both of them?”
Andy Burnham faces his first revolt – Angela Rayner just couldn’t keep her mouth shut
If you thought all was sweetness and light in Andy Burnham’s Labour, you haven’t been watching Angela Rayner.
Angela Rayner has a nerve, going for a fellow cabinet minister (Image: Getty)
The Labour Party conference begins in Liverpool today and on the face of it, it’s going to be very different to the last one. A year ago, Andy Burnham was persona non grata. Ministers took turns sneering at the King of the North’s ambitions to become PM, while pledging their loyalty to Sir Keir Starmer. You won’t find many Starmer loyalists today, although one or two will be drifting about, muttering old mantras about “difficult decisions”. But behind the smiles, frustrations are growing and knives are being sharpened.
No prizes for guessing who’s first to wield hers. It had to be Angela Rayner, didn’t it? Probably the last thing Burnham needed right now was for Red Ange to take on the most toxic subject of the lot: immigration. And use it to shaft a senior member of his cabinet – Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood. Rayner attacked Mahmood’s migrant crackdown right on the eve of conference, despite knowing exactly what a fuss it would cause. She repeated her criticism of plans to make foreign care workers wait 15 years for permanent residence, saying Labour had “changed the goalposts”.
It’s not the first time she’s lunged for Mahmood. Rayner knows she has plenty of support, which only makes it worse. More than 100 Labour MPs have opposed Mahmood’s reforms, while trade unions are also campaigning against them. Unison is holding a migrant care worker rally in Liverpool on Monday. Lucky Mahmood.
I admire Mahmood, a minister who rolls up her sleeves and cracks on, running the hardest Whitehall department of the lot. She’s the only one who stuck to her job in a sea of incompetence that was the Starmer regime. She doesn’t indulge in political posturing, unlike our firebrand Housing Secretary.
Many will sympathise with Rayner’s complaint that it’s unfair to recruit care workers from overseas, then tighten settlement rules later. But this is a tough area, and Mahmood has to make tough decisions. She doesn’t deserve to have Rayner exploit the issue to milk applause from the left.
It’s the last thing Andy Burnham needs as well. He’s shied away from toxic issues like this one, hoping to treat the nation to some feel-good political fun. Then up steps Rayner at the worst possible time.
When it comes to stepping on the toes of other cabinet ministers, Rayner has form. Remember how she handed a list of tax demands to former chancellor Rachel Reeves? While doing incoherent things with her own tax return. Knows no shame, our Ange. And she won’t be the only Labour delegate involved in a bit of red-on-red brutality in Liverpool.
Starmer’s former business secretary Peter Kyle is arguing for a more vigorous approach to wealth creation. That won’t win friends on the backbenches. They only want to tax wealth, not generate it.
Starmer’s former chief secretary Darren Jones, the man who pointed out that Burnham’s plan to cut VAT on electricity bills wasn’t properly funded, may also be willing to speak a bit of truth to the new power.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds has even argued that the EU isn’t the answer to all Britain’s problems, which will have delegates blocking their ears. Then there’ll be the usual rabble of leftie activists, ranting on about Gaza, demanding Burnham nationalises the water companies, berating North Sea drilling and, of course, having a pop at Mahmood.
Plus there’ll be some real crackpots who are still furious that Burnham didn’t make Ed Miliband chancellor and destroy British capitalism for good. Instead, they’ve got boring old John Healey, banging on about sticking to fiscal rules. None of the faithful flocking to Liverpool wants to hear that. Meet the new Labour Party, increasingly similar to the old one. Angela Rayner hasn’t changed her spots at all.