Families could face an almost £500 increase as they pay more for energy and mortgages.
UK households face a potential £500 energy bill increase. (Image: Getty)
UK households could face an energy bill increase of almost £500 in January, with families warned they could be hit by soaring costs just as the Bank of England weighs the inflationary impact of the shock.
The warning comes from the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) following the Bank’s latest decision on interest rates.
Get personal finance news, money saving tips and advice plus selcted offers and competitions
Invalid email
You agree you are 18 or over. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. You can unsubscribe at any time. More Info.
William Ellis, senior economist at IPPR, said the Bank had “rightly stopped sales of long-dated gilts” but argued that its remaining gilt-market operations continue to cost taxpayers billions of pounds each year.
Families are being warned of a costly winter (Image: Getty)
He said the Government should explore ways to close the gap and create more room for public spending.
On interest rates, Ellis said the Bank had held rates as expected but warned there was pressure for rates to rise later in the year following increases in Europe and the US.
However, he argued that higher interest rates would not address the underlying cause of the energy shock.
“Higher interest rates are the wrong tool for this shock,” Ellis said. “This is not British inflation, but the war in Iran arriving on British bills.”
He argued that monetary policy cannot directly reduce global energy prices, leaving households facing the prospect of higher bills while interest rates remain a potential source of additional pressure.
“Families face the most expensive winter since 2022/23, with annual energy bills expected to be almost £500 higher in January than they are now,” he said.
The warning comes as households already face pressure from the cost of essentials, with energy bills traditionally rising in importance during the colder months as demand for heating increases.
Ellis said families could effectively be “hit twice”, first through higher energy bills and then through mortgage costs if interest rates were increased in response to inflation.
The IPPR economist called for the Government to consider direct action on household energy prices if the conflict does not de-escalate quickly.
He suggested a temporary ceiling on household energy bills as one potential measure.
According to Ellis, such a move could limit inflation at source while reducing pressure on the Bank of England to respond to the shock through higher interest rates.
“It limits inflation at source, reduces pressure for higher interest rates, and stops a temporary shock doing lasting damage to living standards,” he said.
UK EU Rejoin Support Hits Record 61% as Sir John Curtice Warns Labour.TA
UK Support for Rejoining EU Reaches Record 61%, Polling Expert Sir John Curtice Warns Labour
Support for Britain rejoining the European Union has reached its highest sustained level since the 2016 Brexit referendum, but political experts caution that a future campaign would face sharp electoral hurdles.
Polling data compiled by veteran analyst Sir John Curtice shows that an average of recent surveys puts the rejoin side at 61 per cent among decided voters.
The remaining 39 per cent favor staying outside the bloc, giving the pro-rejoin movement a commanding 22-point advantage.
The figures mark a striking reversal from the original 52-48 vote that initiated Britain’s departure nearly a decade ago.
Yet, as public sentiment shifts, Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government faces mounting pressure over how to handle its growing European ambitions without igniting old political divisions.
The Demographic Shift Driving the Rejoin Lead
The widening gap in polling is largely the result of generational change rather than mass conversions among original voters.
Data indicates that roughly 18 per cent of those who backed Leave in 2016 now support rejoining, while about 11 per cent of former Remain voters have moved in the opposite direction.
Instead, the electorate itself has transformed.
A decade of younger citizens reaching voting age has introduced a demographic that overwhelmingly favors EU membership.
Simultaneously, older generations, who formed the bedrock of the Leave vote, have seen natural attrition.
Non-voters from the original referendum who have since engaged with the political process also lean heavily toward rejoining, altering the baseline of the British electorate.
Why the 61% Lead Might Be Vulnerable
Despite the substantial polling lead, Curtice warns that headline figures would likely narrow once a real electoral campaign began.
A future referendum would not simply replicate the binary choice of 2016.
Britain previously held specific exemptions, including staying out of the euro and the Schengen travel area.
Re-entering the bloc would require fresh negotiations with Brussels, and terms could differ significantly from past arrangements.
Opponents would likely center their campaigns on thorny issues such as financial contributions, freedom of movement, and adoption of the single currency.
While current respondents express support for rejoining in principle, a formal negotiation process would introduce complex economic and sovereignty questions that have yet to be tested under campaign scrutiny.
Public Perception of Brexit’s Economic Impact
The growing appetite for closer European ties coincides with increasingly negative assessments of Brexit’s practical consequences.
Research from the National Centre for Social Research indicates that 69 per cent of the public believes Britain’s economy is worse off as a result of leaving the EU.
Only 9 per cent think the economy has benefited.
Even among original Leave voters, 38 per cent now agree that the economic outcome has been negative, a stark contrast to pre-referendum expectations.
Public anxiety has also shifted regarding immigration, with 54 per cent saying Brexit increased overall immigration levels rather than reducing them.
However, analysts note that economic dissatisfaction remains a far stronger driver of changing voting intentions than immigration concerns, while national sovereignty remains a powerful motivator for remaining outside the bloc.
Labour’s Balancing Act on the European Reset
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pursued a strategy of closer cooperation with Brussels while explicitly ruling out a return to the EU, the single market, or the customs union.
His government has focused on practical adjustments, such as reducing trade barriers for food and drink exports and negotiating youth mobility frameworks.
Curtice argues that this cautious approach leaves the administration politically vulnerable.
He warned that without active leadership defending these changes, figures like Nigel Reform leader and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will successfully frame any closer ties as an attempt to undermine the 2016 result.
Balancing public demand for stronger European cooperation with the risk of reviving bitter partisan battles remains one of Labour’s most delicate policy challenges.
What Happens Next
As polling consistently shows a strong majority favoring rejoining, the political debate is unlikely to fade.
While Labour maintains its opposition to reopening membership negotiations, shifting demographics and deteriorating economic perceptions of Brexit continue to keep the question alive in Westminster.
Whether the government can successfully navigate its practical reset without triggering a broader constitutional confrontation will depend heavily on how public opinion evolves as economic pressures persist.
How do you think the British government should balance the growing public support for closer European ties with the commitments made after the 2016 referendum?
UK EU Rejoin Support Hits Record 61% as Sir John Curtice Warns Labour
A decade after Britain’s historic Brexit referendum, support for rejoining the European Union has reached its highest sustained level since the 2016 vote, according to polling analysis by Professor Sir John Curtice.
The latest figures suggest that 61 per cent of people choosing between the two options would now vote for Britain to rejoin the EU, compared with 39 per cent who would choose to remain outside the bloc. Curtice has described the figure as the highest average level of support for rejoining recorded over an extended period since the original referendum.
The figures have immediately reignited the debate over Britain’s long-term relationship with Europe.
They also present a difficult political question for Labour.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government has pursued a closer relationship with the European Union while stopping short of advocating full membership. The strategy is based on improving the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with Brussels without formally reversing Brexit.
Curtice’s warning is that Labour may eventually have to do more than quietly negotiate practical improvements.
If public attitudes are changing, he argues, political parties could influence that shift further by openly making the case for their preferred approach.
But he has also cautioned against assuming that today’s polling would automatically translate into victory in another referendum.
A Remarkable Shift in Public Opinion
The latest 61 per cent figure is striking because the question of EU membership remains deeply connected to Britain’s political history.
In the 2016 referendum, 51.9 per cent of voters chose Leave while 48.1 per cent voted Remain.
Since then, the political environment has changed significantly.
A large group of younger voters who were too young to participate in the 2016 referendum has entered the electorate.
Curtice has pointed to demographic change as one of the major reasons for the movement in public opinion. He noted that younger voters are heavily inclined towards rejoining, while some older voters who were more likely to have supported Leave have died since the original referendum.
This does not mean that most original Leave voters have changed their minds.
According to Curtice’s analysis, only around 18 per cent of people who voted Leave in 2016 now say they would vote to rejoin.
Similarly, around 11 per cent of former Remain voters now say they would choose to stay outside the EU.
The changing balance therefore appears to be influenced substantially by generational replacement and differences between age groups.
The Ipsos Evidence
Other polling provides evidence of a similar shift, although the exact numbers vary according to the wording of the question.
Ipsos research published in June 2026 found that 52 per cent of Britons thought the UK should apply to rejoin the European Union, compared with 33 per cent who believed Britain should remain outside.
Among likely voters in a hypothetical future referendum, 58 per cent said they would vote to rejoin and 37 per cent would vote to stay out. Once undecided respondents were removed, that produced the same 61 per cent to 39 per cent division.
The Ipsos research also showed that attitudes remain strongly divided along political and demographic lines.
Among current Labour voters, 84 per cent supported applying to rejoin.
By contrast, 71 per cent of Reform UK voters said they would vote to stay outside the EU.
Age was another significant dividing line: 68 per cent of 18-to-34-year-olds supported rejoining, while half of those aged 55 and over preferred remaining outside.
These differences demonstrate why the headline 61 per cent figure needs careful interpretation.
It indicates a substantial change in public opinion, but it does not mean Britain has reached a settled national consensus.
Curtice’s Warning to Labour
For Labour, the political significance of the figures lies in what happens next.
Curtice has argued that the public has shifted towards rejoining despite political parties largely avoiding the issue.
For much of the period since Brexit, Labour’s leadership has been reluctant to reopen the fundamental question of EU membership.
Instead, the party has concentrated on improving Britain’s relationship with the EU.
That has included seeking closer cooperation in areas such as trade, food exports and youth mobility.
Curtice’s argument is that political silence itself may have contributed to the situation.
If voters have received relatively little sustained campaigning for rejoining, he suggests that there may still be considerable scope for political arguments to influence opinion.
This creates an unusual situation.
A significant section of the electorate may now favour rejoining, yet the largest governing party is not advocating it.