Nick Tyrone’s in-depth study of Reform has left him open to voting for the party (Image: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire)
Nigel Farage is on course to be Britain’s next prime minister, according to a self-proclaimed liberal Remainer whose new book details the rise of Reform UK.
Nick Tyrone describes himself as a “centrist dad” who would like to see the UK rejoin the European Union, but after immersing himself among rank and file Reform activists across the nation he admits he may vote the party at the next election.
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Mr Tyrone, who says he has voted Liberal Democrat in most general elections, argues it is “completely wrongheaded” to see Reform as the “party of nasty politics”. He rejects claims by liberal friends that Reform are the “bad guys” and argues most activists are “normal people who don’t like the way the country has been run”.
The Rise of Reform has won praise ahead of its publication later this month from prime ministerial biographer Anthony Seldon and The Rest is History podcast’s Tom Holland. It comes as comes as high-profile Reform figures face investigations over donations, and as Andy Burnham seeks to win back the North to Labour.
Mr Tyrone argues that the idea that the Conservatives and Reform should come together and “unite the Right” ahead of the next election to stop Labour holding onto power is “complete and utter rubbish”.
He claims there is strong hostility to the Tories in Reform ranks, with former Conservative voters “not in a mood to forgive and forget anytime”. One local organiser told him that “annihilating” the Conservatives is seen by many as the “most important part of the mission”.
Describing what he thinks is the biggest misconception about Mr Farage, he said it is that he is “motivated by bad ideology”.
He told the Sunday Express: “[What] I see is someone who deeply cares about Britain and sees himself as someone who can change it.”
By David Williamson Chief Political Commentator NIGEL Farage is on course to be Britain’s next prim (Image: Rahil Ahmad)
Looking ahead to the next election, which must come no later than August 2029, he expects immigration will continue to be a “big issue” and that if the country runs into financial trouble the argument that Britain needs a “fresh start” will be even stronger.
While he says it is “not totally impossible” that the Tories may pull ahead of Reform in the polls before the election, he “would bet against it”.
He said: “I just feel like the Tories are so complacent… They do not understand how difficult it is going to be to get their former voters back.
“It’s going to be really, really, really hard, and I think they think it will be relatively straightforward.”
Describing the Reform supporters he met in England, Scotland and Wales, he said: “They’re very, very civically minded in a way that Labour people would have been 40 years ago, if that makes sense… They care about their local community.”
And Reform, he added, are “the only ones speaking these people’s language”.
- The Rise of Reform is published on September 24
Liberal Remainer bets Nigel Farage will be next PM – and might even back Reform
A self-described liberal Remainer who once strongly supported Britain remaining in the European Union says he believes Nigel Farage could become Britain’s next prime minister — and has admitted that his own view of Reform UK has changed enough that he may even consider voting for the party.
Nick Tyrone, described as a “centrist dad”, has spent considerable time researching Reform UK and speaking to its supporters for a new book examining the party’s development.
His conclusions are notable partly because of where he says he started.
Tyrone describes himself as someone who would like Britain to rejoin the European Union. Yet after spending time travelling around the country and talking to Reform members and activists, he says he has developed a more nuanced view of the party and its supporters.
In an interview connected to the publication of his book, he argued that Farage’s political position should not simply be dismissed and that Reform has established itself as a significant force in British politics.
His comments are an assessment of Britain’s political landscape rather than a forecast that can establish who will actually become prime minister.
From Remain supporter to Reform observer
Tyrone’s background makes his assessment particularly interesting.
He identifies as a liberal Remainer and has said that, ideally, Britain would return to the European Union.
That position places him far from the political tradition associated with Farage, whose career has been closely connected with Euroscepticism and the campaign for Brexit.
Yet Tyrone’s research into Reform has led him to spend time with people who support the party.
Rather than examining Reform solely through Westminster politics or newspaper coverage, he says he wanted to understand why ordinary voters and activists had become attracted to it.
That experience appears to have influenced his assessment.
His willingness to say that he could potentially vote Reform is significant because it illustrates how political identities can become less straightforward when voters are confronted with issues that do not fit neatly into traditional left-right divisions.
It also reflects the broader fragmentation of British politics since the Brexit referendum.
Reform’s rise
Reform UK has developed from a party initially associated with the Brexit movement into a broader political organisation campaigning on issues including immigration, taxation, public spending, regulation and the size of government.
Farage has been central to that transformation.
He returned to frontline politics as Reform UK’s leader before the 2024 general election and has remained the party’s most recognisable figure.
The party won five parliamentary seats at the 2024 election, while receiving more than four million votes nationally.
Although the number of seats was relatively small compared with the major parties, Reform’s vote share demonstrated that it had established a substantial national constituency.
The party subsequently achieved significant gains in local government and has continued to seek to expand its organisation.
Those developments are part of the background to Tyrone’s assessment.
His argument is not simply that Farage is popular among existing Reform voters.
Instead, he suggests that the party has the potential to reach voters who previously would not have considered supporting it.
Why Farage remains central
Reform’s political identity remains closely connected to Farage.
He has previously led the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party, and played a prominent role in the Brexit campaign.
His ability to communicate directly with voters has helped him maintain a high public profile for many years.
Supporters view him as an experienced political communicator who has challenged established parties.
Critics have objected to many of his positions, particularly on immigration, Britain’s relationship with Europe and other contentious issues.
Those competing interpretations are part of the political environment in which Reform operates.
Tyrone’s research attempts to look beyond those familiar arguments by examining the people who have chosen to support the party.
The importance of former supporters of other parties
One of the more significant questions for Reform is whether it can attract people who previously voted Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or other parties.
A political party does not need every voter to share all of its policies.
Instead, voters can make decisions based on a small number of issues they consider especially important.
For some Reform supporters, immigration and national sovereignty are central.
Others may be motivated by dissatisfaction with the established parties, concerns about taxation, public services or the cost of living.
Understanding those differences is important when assessing the party’s potential support.
Tyrone’s account suggests that Reform’s appeal is broader than a simple continuation of the Brexit coalition.
Could a Remainer really vote Reform?
The most striking part of the story is Tyrone’s admission that he might vote for Reform despite remaining opposed to Brexit.
That does not necessarily mean that he has changed his views on Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Rather, it suggests that voters can distinguish between individual policy questions.
Someone may prefer closer relations with the EU while simultaneously agreeing with Reform on another issue.
That kind of cross-pressure is increasingly visible in modern British politics.
Political parties can no longer assume that voters who hold one particular position will automatically support the traditional party associated with that position.
Brexit itself demonstrated this.
The 2016 referendum brought together voters from very different political backgrounds, while subsequent elections showed significant movement between parties.
The Farage question
Tyrone’s suggestion that Farage could become prime minister is ultimately a political assessment.
There is no certainty that Reform will form a government at the next general election, and there is no reliable way to treat an individual commentator’s prediction as a settled outcome.
The UK’s electoral system also means that national vote share and parliamentary representation do not necessarily translate directly into one another.
A party needs sufficient support distributed across constituencies to win enough seats to form a government or play a decisive role in Parliament.
Consequently, Reform’s future cannot be determined simply by looking at its national popularity.
The party’s organisation, candidate selection, constituency campaigns, relationships with other parties and ability to maintain support over time could all influence its eventual parliamentary strength.
The Conservative question
Another important part of the political landscape is Reform’s relationship with the Conservative Party.
Reform competes directly with the Conservatives for some voters, particularly on issues such as immigration, taxation and the role of the state.
This creates a strategic problem for both parties.
If Reform attracts Conservative voters, it could alter the distribution of votes in marginal constituencies.
At the same time, Conservative politicians have faced questions about whether they should seek to compete directly with Reform or attempt to recover voters who have moved towards Farage.
The relationship has therefore become one of the defining strategic questions on the British right.
Why the Remain perspective matters
Tyrone’s perspective is particularly interesting because it does not come from someone who began as a Reform supporter.
His starting position is explicitly different.
That makes his research useful as an example of how political movements can look different when examined from outside their traditional support base.
It also raises a wider question about political polarisation.
People often understand political opponents through media coverage, social media arguments or campaign material.
Directly speaking with supporters can reveal motivations that are more complicated than the public stereotypes associated with a party.
That appears to be one of the central themes of Tyrone’s research.
Reform’s challenge
For Reform, the next stage is likely to involve turning enthusiasm and visibility into a durable political organisation.
Winning support at national level is different from maintaining it across hundreds of individual constituencies.
The party must also deal with the normal pressures faced by any political organisation: candidate selection, policy development, funding, internal disagreements and scrutiny of elected representatives.
Farage himself has remained the dominant figure, which gives Reform a clear public identity but also places considerable attention on one politician.
The party’s long-term development will depend partly on whether it can broaden its appeal while maintaining the support of its existing voters.
A changing political landscape
Tyrone’s comments offer a striking example of how Britain’s political landscape has changed since the Brexit referendum.
A person who describes himself as a liberal Remainer now says he could potentially support a party led by one of Britain’s most prominent Brexit campaigners.
That does not mean that every Remain voter is moving towards Reform, nor does it establish that Farage will become prime minister.
It does, however, illustrate how traditional political identities have become less predictable.
Voters can disagree with a party on one major issue while agreeing with it on several others.
For Reform UK, attracting people beyond its traditional base could be an important part of its future development.
For its opponents, understanding why people who once supported other parties are considering Reform may be equally important.
And for voters such as Tyrone, the choice appears increasingly to involve weighing individual policies and priorities rather than simply remaining loyal to an established political camp.
Farage’s prospects will ultimately depend on what happens at future elections, not on any single commentator’s prediction.
But Tyrone’s change in perspective provides an intriguing illustration of the political realignment taking place in Britain — where even some people who once stood firmly on the Remain side are now willing to take a closer look at Reform UK.